By Ben Kerrigan-
Plaid Cymru secured a monumental victory in the Senedd seat of Caerphilly this week, claiming the constituency for the first time in history. Veteran Plaid candidate Lindsay Whittle won the by-election with 15,960 votes, cementing a staggering and highly symbolic defeat for the Welsh Labour party. Lindsay Whittle was elected as a Member of the Senedd, having served as a councillor for nearly five decades.
Plaid Cymru’s newly elected Caerphilly Member of the Senedd Lindsay Whittle at the count. Pic: Getty Images.
Labour had held Caerphilly at every Senedd election since the creation of the devolved Welsh Parliament in 1999, yet their candidate finished in a humiliating third place. Remarkably, the contest transformed into a fierce, two-horse race primarily between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, significantly diminishing the status of the former governing party.
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For Plaid Cymru, the result represents a significant shift in the political landscape of South Wales and provides major momentum heading into the next Senedd elections scheduled for 2026. The unexpected outcome also delivered a visible blow to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, which desperately sought to convert its strength in opinion polls into a tangible electoral victory. This Caerphilly By-election Historic Upset immediately sends a seismic message from Wales to both Cardiff and Westminster.
The impressive turnout for the ballot stood at 50.43%, which was considerably higher than the 2021 Senedd election, demonstrating the heightened local and national interest in the contest. During the final vote count, Plaid supporters gathered at the leisure centre, celebrating the result as a pivotal moment for Welsh nationalism. Consequently, attention immediately shifted to analysing the catastrophic losses suffered by Labour and the surprisingly strong performance of the challengers.
The win represents the crowning achievement of a long political career for victorious candidate Lindsay Whittle, aged 72. Whittle has stood as a Plaid candidate in various elections 13 times since 1983. He visibly cried when the result was finally announced, overwhelmed by the culmination of decades of campaigning. Whittle will now hold the seat until the next general Senedd election scheduled for 2026.
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He delivered a powerful acceptance speech, noting he felt “absolutely heartened” by the number of young people involved in his campaign. Addressing both the Welsh and UK governments, Whittle made it perfectly clear the result carries a decisive message. He urged the capital cities to “listen now Cardiff and listen Westminster,” emphasizing, “this is Caerphilly and Wales telling you we want a better deal for every corner of Wales.”
Indeed, Plaid Cymru’s victory signals much more than a temporary surge in nationalist support; it signals a possible new dawn for the party in the valley strongholds. Plaid Cymru’s leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, celebrated the win as “the start of a reset of politics in Wales.” He made no secret of the party’s primary goal: to replace Labour as the ruling party in the Senedd for the first time in the 2026 election. “We have to replace Labour,” he stated, adding that this ambition is not for its own sake, but to achieve “better outcomes for Wales,” aligning with Plaid Cymru’s historical mandate for the nation.
Whittle himself quipped that the victory felt “better than scoring the winning try for Wales in the Rugby World Cup,” underscoring the passion invested in achieving the Caerphilly By-election Historic Upset. Whittle concluded by framing the result as a blueprint for future success, showing “what’s possible when people come together to back practical solutions.”
The outcome was a devastating and humiliating defeat for the Welsh Labour Party, which historically commanded near-absolute authority in the region. Labour had held the Caerphilly parliamentary seat for over a century, before the advent of the Senedd, and had secured the Senedd seat at every election since its inception. Consequently, Labour’s third-place finish represents the loss of a key pillar of its traditional political base in the South Wales Valleys. Their candidate, Richard Tunnicliffe, only secured 3,713 votes, a massive drop-off from previous contests. Welsh Labour attempted to temper the fallout, describing the result as a “by-election in the toughest of circumstances,” citing “difficult headwinds nationally” as the primary reason for the abysmal performance.
Cabinet Office Minister Nick Thomas-Symonds admitted disappointment but suggested “frustrations” with the “pace of change” felt by voters contributed heavily to the party’s dramatic loss. Huw Irranca-Davies, Labour’s deputy first minister in the Senedd, acknowledged the need for urgent change. He recognized that Labour must pivot “back to bread and butter things” like the cost of living crisis, the state of local high streets, and green spaces, rather than focusing on national issues such as immigration.
First Minister Eluned Morgan similarly accepted the responsibility for the result, pledging, “We are listening, we are learning the lessons, and we will be come back stronger.” Nevertheless, the Caerphilly By-election Historic Upset forces Labour to confront the reality that its traditional dominance in the Welsh Valleys is now seriously threatened by nationalist and populist alternatives.
The surprise runner-up in the election was Reform UK, whose candidate Llyr Powell secured an impressive 12,113 votes, narrowly missing the victory. This performance marked a substantial improvement for the party, which secured only 495 votes in the constituency during the 2021 election. The strong showing, despite the loss, validates Reform UK’s claim that they can successfully convert their high national opinion poll ratings into competitive local votes.
Llŷr Powell was Reform’s candidate for the by-election. Pic: Sam Robinson/BBC
Party Chairman David Bull even suggested that their excellent polling position might have inadvertently cost them the seat. Bull argued that an opinion poll released days before the vote, showing Reform on 42% and Plaid on 38%, triggered tactical voting. He claimed, “I’ve heard tales from Lib Dem supporters, even Tories, actually voting tactically for Plaid to keep us out.” This dynamic suggests the Caerphilly By-election Historic Upset was partly manufactured by anti-Reform sentiment, pushing centrist and right-wing voters toward Plaid Cymru as the only viable alternative.
Nigel Farage, who campaigned heavily for Powell on polling day, was notably absent when the final result was declared at 2:10 am. This absence drew quips from Plaid supporters, who joked Farage was “halfway down the M4 on his way back to London” before the votes were even counted.
Conversely, this close second-place finish confirms Reform UK’s newfound status as a major disruptive force in UK politics, demonstrating that they are drawing support from both traditional Labour and Conservative voters.
The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats both fared extremely poorly, losing their deposits in a clear signal that the two major Westminster parties are losing relevance in this Welsh constituency. Ultimately, the Caerphilly By-election Historic Upset not only showcased Plaid Cymru’s resurgence but also highlighted the fundamental shift in voting intentions away from the established order across Wales.
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