NATE SILVER AND RUSSELL BRAND GET IT WRONG FOR UK ELECTIONS

NATE SILVER AND RUSSELL BRAND GET IT WRONG FOR UK ELECTIONS

BY GABRIEL PRINCEWILL

David Cameron’s surprise electoral victory yesterday took all by surprise, and showed opinion polls to be just an indication at best of what what people think in certain parts of the country. Conservative and Labor were both neck and neck in most polls, with the Labor party nicking the edge on occasions during the election period. Cameroon’s initial aversion to engage in debate on national television, then his later stance to appear for just one debate was wholly unhelpful to his image.

His aversion to the television debates gave Milliband the edge in the eyes of the public, making the opposition leader look more like the front man for a while. In terms of morale, he managed to bounce back comfortably on the Question of Ed Milliband’s ingratiation with Russell Brand, in which he scored a good knock out blow as indicated by one of our writers. Milliband’s attempt to broaden his fan base via affiliating with Brand was not really a bad idea because Russell Brand went from the gutter to the top of his career, and has influence in many circles. However, the fact Brand’s job is generally to make us laugh played into Cameron’s hands who quickly dismissed Milliband’s alliance with Brand as a joke. Further unhelpful was Brand’s known stance against voting, albeit on the not unreasonable grounds of the general credibility politicians lack.

Brand’s beef with politicians has always been the fact they say one thing but do another. Although, the fact some succeed in the execution of certain aspects of their policy, tell us that it is the degree of achieved success measured against their failings that really form the basis of their credentials, when compared to their rivals. Politics isn’t just about credentials, general appeal and efficiency of campaign constitute a key aspect of any election. Milliband’s last minute alliance with Brand may have been futile if Brand did not go out of his way to engage ordinary people in the issues that affect the country, then explain how a Labour government would change those issues for the better. In the absence of any proactive outreach even by a popular figure, it was always going to be doubtful whether a celebrity on board will make the difference since it depends how much leverage the celebrity wields in the general eyes of the public, and also how many of those influenced by him actually turn out to vote.

Wide sections of the British public have long been disenchanted with the relatively low political level of integrity in British politics. The implication is ‘indifference’ in many circles, such that many of those who support a certain party don’t actually bother to take part in the voting. Here is where Brand’s limitation in changing the fortunes of Milliband may have been laid bare. Brand was not a campaigner for Milliband, rather he used the defeated opposition leader’s platform as one in which he would launch his own political ideologies. We now know Brand’s views, and we also know he has a wide audience of fans. This nonetheless alters the challenge of cajoling one’s fans into going from one with apathy on political matters to one who can be mobilised to a polling station to vote purely on the influence of a celebrity, idol, or even icon. As a campaigning strategy, using Brand did not work for Milliband, but it did make the elections a bit more interesting.

Opinion polls generally suggested no party would win with a majority, but the results that eventually came were dramatically different. Quite conceivably, Milliband’s assertive stance of sticking with the EU may have backfired particularly given the widely held view in many circles that immigration is out of control and needs to be controlled. The competing issues in relation to the loss of trade that would inevitably result from disconnecting the associated economic integration that accompanies the EU, is one those oppose to European Union are optimistic British can adjust to. The benefits that stem from Economic trade are invaluable, as well as the social integration that comes with it. Nevertheless, the choice to remain in the EU is one Brits are entitled to, even if a disastrous emerges from it. Though Milliband might be theoretically right about the serious downsides to departure from the EU, one just can’t help thinking that several Brits had set their allegiance with the Conservatives, chiefly on the question of the EU. Labour’s past mismanageement of the Economy was alluded to in the slagging off match between to the two parties, though past failure is not always a credible basis for forecasting future performance, especially when the leaders are changed. It nevertheless is a guide.

Finally, the hype is over. We now know that American’s apparent expert statisticain, Nate Silver, was wrong in his predictions on a hung parliament. Russell Brand also did not widen the net for Labour, he took took the opportunity to air his views and have a swipe at the Conservatives. Brand did well to escape the punishing and cruel addiction of drugs, rising to the heights of fame and riches. The political arena is different and though the Comedian does have some valuable political points to make, the pressing political issues are vast and varied. Brand has even be blamed for causing Labour’s defeat, and recent comments from the Comedian that he has retired from politics has led some to see it as an unpleasant U turn.

David Cameron is said to have sought permission from the Queen to form a majority government and is obviously happy with the convincing victory. Milliband, an Oxford graduate, has never enjoyed much popularity with the British public but received his greatest encouragement in the elections as poll readings gave him a chance of pulling off the upset. Unfortunately for him, the outright victory that contradicted poll projections, delivered a crushing blow for him, forcing his demise as Labour leader. Milliband, formerly a television journalist before being elevated to highly exalted posts including working for the chancellor has achieved much in his career, but failed to get to the summit of success in the form of the enviable role of Prime Minister. That would have been the apex of his career, but instead it is Cameron who will serve another term and determine what way Britain tends.

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