BY BEN KERRIGAN
Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton are both struggling to make a sharp lead on American opinion polls.
Trump has made the highest leap in popularity compared with Clinton from what was anticipated at the start of their respective campaigns. However, a number of national polls in recent days shows the contest to be very close, with some giving Trump the slight lead, and others making them neck and neck with American voters.
More and more Republican voters are reported to be rallying round Trump, probably as a result of lots of political swaying and negotiations in Republican circles.
William Galston, a senior fellow at Washington’s Brookings Institution, said Trump “has succeeded in consolidating his support with the Republican Party a lot faster than a lot of people thought he would be able to. ” Clinton has had difficulty winning support from Sanders’ most ardent backers”, he added.
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The Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Trump is now winning 85 percent support from Republicans in a match up against Clinton, despite some key Republican figures refusing to endorse him.
PUBLIC PERCEPTION
Polls suggest that many Americans have negative perceptions about both Trump and Clinton, but view Trump as the lesser evil of the two. However, this depends on why they think so, and on what basis they hold this view. America is big, making it arguable the extent to which these polls accurately reflect the overall views of Americans.
These are early stages, and with several months to go, things may shape differently with time.
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ELECTORAL
U.S. elections are decided by the electoral college — with each state’s electoral votes determined by its population and the number of senators and representatives it has in Congress. The poplar party votes is a preliminary stage that does not decide the final votes. Numerous U.S. analysts believe Clinton holds the edge there, with the U.S. states with the biggest number of electoral votes mostly voting for Democratic presidential candidates over the last six elections.
Some commentators believe the strength of the incumbent two-term president is influential for the voters, as they are more likely to support the candidate of his own party to succeed him. And President Obama is perceived as having improved his standing very considerably over the past few months. But the speed of the economic recovery has however been an issue with many Americans, with many discontent with the current pace of recovery. A lot will hinge on how far the economy has progressed six months down the line as the election approaches.
pic By United States Department of State – Official Photo at Department of State page, Public Domain
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