By Ben Kerrigan-
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), which advises the government, have warned against ending the lockdown too soon, as they published details of its confidential meetings.
It includes minutes of 34 Sage sessions, going back to 22 January, and a series of scientific reports.
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Notes taken during one Sage meeting on 23 April estimated there would be only 1,000 cases per day by mid-May.
Instead, estimates by the Office for National Statistics suggest there are currently 8,000 cases per day in England alone. Those figures do not include cases in care homes or hospitals.
Prof Edmunds,(pictured) from the London School of Tropical Hygiene and Medicine and a member of Sage, said the levels of the coronavirus were still “very high” and many scientists would rather the number of cases declined before measures were relaxed.
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His warning was echoed by Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust and a member of Sage, said on Twitter that Covid-19 is “spreading too fast to lift lockdown in England” and NHS test and trace “has to be fully working and infection rates have to be lower”.
Speaking on Radio 4’s Today programme, Prof Peter Horby, who sits on Sage and chairs its NERVTAG subcommittee, said the R number was still close to one and it was important we “don’t lose control”.
He said: “Relaxing these measures does require the test, trace and isolate system to be in place and fully operational and to operating to a level where you are capturing most cases and tracing the contacts within 48 hours.”
Professor Edmunds later told Sky News that there were 8,000 new infections everyday in England alone, insisting that ”people with die” and that there are many infections in care homes and close settings not included in those statistics.
Warning against the risk of losing control, Professor Horby said:
“What I would say is that returning to a situation where we lost control again is far worse than another week or two of social measures,” he said.
Prof Sally Bloomfield, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine is advising against people embracing the advice and deciding to have a barbecues, as social distancing only helped prevent transmission in the air and the virus could be present on bottles, cutlery and other objects.
She told BBC Breakfast: “My fear is that the word gathering will be taken as ‘we can have a party in the garden now’. Scotland has been more specific and said no sharing utensils.
“We have really got to think, we can’t have a socially distanced barbecue but we could have a picnic where we each bring our own food and don’t share it with other people.”
The Sage documents warned there would be “little time” to re-impose stricter lockdown measures if the infection rate started to creep up again.
Epidemiologist Prof Sian Griffiths also told BBC Breakfast that if scientists were in charge of decisions, lockdown would probably not be eased now , adding that there were other factors to consider.
“I would say there is a huge amount of stress and strain which goes along with not being able to see your friends and your family and that to be able to see them, albeit at a distance, may actually help people’s mental health and may help them live with lockdown better and may help them comply better,” she said.
Insiders from Sky News told The Eye Of Media.Com that the British government has probably been taking heed to concerns about domestic violence and mental health issues in easing the lockdown.
One analyst anonymously said: ”there is a lot of concern from scientists about whether the government’s decision to ease the lockdown at this time is actually appropriate, given the estimated rate of infections. However, deaths rates have clearly been going down.
Balancing this with concerns raised of higher domestic violence and higher mental health issues arising from the lockdown is something the government have probably taken into account into easing the lockdown a little bit’.
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