BY ANGELA DANIELS
The recent execution by Saudi-Arabia, of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, 56, an outspoken, leading cleric, of the Saudi monarch and his family sparked off the diplomatic conflict with Iran and has thrown the Persian Gulf into the erupting crisis.
The Sheikh was one of the three Shia Muslims among the 47 executions, the other 44 were said to be members of al-Quaeda. Iran and Saudi-Arabia are the two key Sunni and Shia Muslim powers in the Gulf. Infuriated Iranian protesters, in retaliation over the killing of their Shia relative stormed the Saudi Embassy in Tehran, capital of Iran, set it ablaze and ransacked it. The Saudi government in turn, promptly severed diplomatic relations with Iran, giving 48 hours to the Iranian ambassador to leave the country. They have followed this up with breaking all commercial ties and instituted a travel ban to Iran.
The Saudi- Iranian relations has fluctuated over many years. 1987 marked the point where 402 pilgrims died during clashes in Mecca, Saudi-Arabia’s holy city – 275 of them from Iran. Diplomatic relations were severed in 1988 and then followed by better times in 1999 with a security pact in 2001, but the invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein of Iraq empowered the Shia majority and consequently a political shift in the country’s alignment towards Iran. Other features included issues relating to diplomatic cables released in by WikiLeaks showing Saudi-Arabia urging America to take a tough stance over Iran’s nuclear program and Washington revealing her discovery of an Iranian plot to assassinate Saudi’s ambassador to the United States.
Not surprisingly, the cold war between the two countries has now quickly escalated to allies of Saudi-Arabia queuing up on her side against Iran. Sudan and Bahrain have severed relations with Iran and the United Arab Emirate have downgraded its diplomatic team in Iran.
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Sudan had been Iran’s closest ally in Africa and while never strategic allies, the two countries had established varying degrees of military, economic and religious ties over the past decades, until a major difference surfaced in September 2014, when without explanation, Sudan ordered all of Iran’s cultural centers to be closed down and gave 72 hours to Iranian diplomats to leave the country. Sudanese media speculated that the government linked concerns that Iranian officials were promoting Shia Islam in Sudan, a largely Sunni country. In March 2015, Sudan expelled all Iranians from Sudan, before joining a Saudi military operation in Yemen. They apparently didn’t trust Iran, concerned that Sudanese best and brightest were joining ISIS.
On the part of Bahrain, ruled by a Sunni monarchy, but a majority Shia population, they were before now, already unhappy with Iran accusing the Iranian government of increasing, flagrant and dangerous meddling in the internal affairs of the Gulf and Arab states.
The UAE which has a significant Iranian community, mostly resident in Dubai emirate has had tensions with Iran over three islands in the Persian Gulf -Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb to which both countries had been trying to find a solution. Iran had in the past criticized the UAE for allowing France to develop its first permanent base in the Persian Gulf, perceived as a threat to Iran’s security.
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It is expected that over time, other countries may feel the need to follow suit, Egypt, Lebanon and Pakistan, for instance.
The age- long divide between the Sunni and Shia sects started in 632 AD after the death of Prophet Mohammed, over who should lead the Muslim Community. The Sunnis make up about 90 percent of Muslims, the Shias about 10 percent. The sectarian alignments are capable of sucking in various countries into the conflicts unless the flames of the moment are speedily quenched.
The US, China and the United Nations have expressed concerns over the deteriorating events. It is unclear who is in a good place to mediate successfully, in the face of the complex alignments and issues. The recent nuclear deal with Iran, promoted by the United States does not make America a favourite of the Saudis. distraction is a serious blow to the fight against ISIS who will likely seek to exploit the situation.
It would seem that the coalition of the many Muslim countries formulated only in the recent weeks to fight against ISIS is compulsorily on hold. Troubled war zones like Syria, Iraq and Yemen have become more worrying, in light of this situation. Anything can explode sooner than later. If only Saudi-Arabia had given more thought to executing the Shia cleric and then announcing it. It seemed obvious what to expect. It seemed equally obvious that angry Iranian protesters would attack the Saudi Embassy. The Iranian government could have forestalled the attack.
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