By Ben Kerrigan-
Coronavirus deaths would soon pass those registered in the first wave has been quietly corrected by the government, it emerged last night, because they were too high.
Projections of coronavirus deaths in the Uk which led to the country being hit with a second national lockdown and were shown at a Downing Street press conference last Saturday.
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The flawed projections which claimed that England would see up to 1,500 deaths a day by early December- much higher than the peaks of deaths recorded in the first wave, have now been shown to be wrong.
However, the figures have now been amended ‘after an error was found’.
The new figures now suggest the second peak is likely to be on par with the first with the worst-case scenario at 1,010 deaths a day by December 8 – a similar figure to that seen in April.
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Predictions for hospital admissions were also revised from 9,000 by early December to 6,190. The admitted errors are both revealing and worrying . The revised slides now contain a note which says: ‘Plots on slides four and five have been amended after an error was found’
The revised figures now suggest the second peak is likely to be on par with the first with the worst-case scenario at 1,010 deaths a day by December 8.
The new revelation comes just days after the government was savaged by critics for a separate worst case scenario claim that deaths could hit 4,000 a day by next month.
The exaggerated figure was delivered in a dossier by Downing Street’s top scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer.
Professor Whitty also conceded that the 4,000 daily deaths prediction was unlikely to come true , arguing that the modelling was a worst-case scenario based on a situation where no extra measures were brought in.
Former PM Theresa May condemned the prime minister’s handling of the situation, saying the controversial claim was ‘wrong before it was even used’.
Public Confidence
Ministers were last night warned not to present virus data in a ‘confusing’ way. The statistics watchdog said issuing figures without ‘appropriate explanations of context and sources’ risked harming public confidence.
Public confidence is further harmed by the lack of complete information about the break down of COVID-19 patients in hospital due to the virus, as well as those who have died as a result of the virus. The ONS has in the past published statistics about those who have died with the virus, including other complications, but has never published information revealing the extent of other complications relating to COVID-19.
In fact, there is no published statistics about COVID-19 patients in hospital with other complications for the last few months.
Recent statistics announcing 378 deaths on Thursday also excludes vital information, despite a 23 percent drop in fatalities compared to yesterday.
Source Of Data
The UK Statistics Authority said the Government and devolved administrations must make clear the source of data used in public briefings and the full figures behind it. It added: ‘The use of data has not consistently been supported by transparent information being provided in a timely manner.
‘As a result, there is potential to confuse the public and undermine confidence in the statistics.
‘It is important that data are shared in a way that promotes transparency and clarity. It should be published in a clear and accessible form with appropriate explanations of context and sources. It should be made available to all at the time the information is referenced publicly.’
The watchdog added: ‘It is clear that those working on the pandemic face significant pressures. But full transparency is vital to public understanding and public confidence in statistics and those who use them.’
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