By Ben Kerrigan-
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has declared her party’s dramatic by-election victory in Aberdeen South a defining moment for the future of Britain’s energy policy, arguing that the result sends a powerful message to both Labour and the Scottish National Party that voters support continued oil and gas development in the North Sea.
Speaking in Aberdeen following the Conservatives’ decisive win, Badenoch said the outcome represented more than a local electoral success. Instead, she framed it as a public endorsement of the party’s commitment to protecting jobs, strengthening energy security and reversing what she described as damaging restrictions on domestic oil and gas production.
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The Conservative leader also used the occasion to launch a broad attack on Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and his government, accusing Labour of becoming distracted by internal political disputes while failing to address the concerns of ordinary families struggling with rising living costs.
According to Badenoch, Labour ministers have become consumed by party infighting at the expense of issues that directly affect households across the country. She argued that the government is failing to focus on priorities such as energy affordability, economic stability and national security, claiming these are the issues voters care about most.
“The Labour Government is so obsessed with its own party drama that it is not interested in the cost of living and not interested in what is happening to people across this country,” Badenoch said. “They are not focused on what is impacting people’s lives.”
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Her remarks came as Conservatives celebrated a remarkable victory in a constituency where the party has historically struggled. The by-election was triggered after former SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn left Westminster politics to secure a seat in the Scottish Parliament during May’s Holyrood elections. The contest quickly became one of the most closely watched political battles in Scotland, with all major parties viewing the result as a potential indicator of voter sentiment ahead of future national elections.
Conservative candidate Douglas Lumsden emerged as the clear winner, securing 14,308 votes and comfortably defeating his rivals. The result represented a significant setback for the SNP, whose vote share collapsed dramatically. The party’s support fell from more than 15,000 votes at the 2024 election to just over 8,200 in the by-election, prompting questions about the effectiveness of its campaign and its position on key regional issues.
The Conservatives had deliberately centred their campaign on the future of the North Sea oil and gas industry, a sector that remains a major employer in Aberdeen and across north-east Scotland. Throughout the campaign, party figures repeatedly described the vote as a referendum on the future of the industry, arguing that Labour and SNP policies threatened thousands of jobs and the long-term economic prospects of communities dependent on energy production.
Following the victory, Badenoch claimed the electorate had delivered a clear verdict. “What this means is that we have won that referendum on oil and gas,” she said. “Aberdeen has sent a message to the Labour Government and to the SNP that we will not be ignored. Aberdeen will not be ignored, and the centre will not be ignored.”
Central to Badenoch’s argument is the belief that energy security and national security are inseparable. She warned that reducing domestic oil and gas production would leave the United Kingdom increasingly dependent on imports from overseas producers, making the country more vulnerable to international instability and supply disruptions.
The Conservative leader argued that Britain should continue to exploit its own energy resources rather than relying on foreign imports. “We need to drill our own oil in the North Sea, not take oil from Russia or Norway when we have got our own oil right here,” she said.
Badenoch also renewed calls for the controversial Jackdaw and Rosebank oil and gas developments to receive government approval. Both projects have become major flashpoints in the wider debate over Britain’s energy future, with supporters arguing they would protect jobs and enhance energy security, while opponents contend that new fossil fuel developments are incompatible with climate commitments.
Urging ministers to reconsider their position, Badenoch called on the government to remove barriers to new developments. “It is time to lift the ban,” she said. “Let Jackdaw and Rosebank drill and provide energy and security to this country and to homes all across the UK.”
The issue has become particularly sensitive in Aberdeen, where many workers and businesses remain closely tied to the fortunes of the offshore energy industry. Conservative campaigners repeatedly highlighted concerns about employment, warning that restrictions on future projects could have significant consequences for workers and local economies.
Badenoch stressed that the by-election was fundamentally about protecting livelihoods. She argued that the stakes extended far beyond local politics and involved the future of an industry supporting thousands of jobs. Comparing the contest with the simultaneously held by-election in Makerfield, she suggested the two races reflected very different priorities.
While political attention had largely focused on Makerfield because of speculation surrounding Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham and his future ambitions, Badenoch dismissed that contest as being primarily about an individual political career. In contrast, she argued that Aberdeen South represented something much larger.
“The Aberdeen South by-election was about thousands of jobs all over the country, but especially in the oil and gas sector,” she said.
The Conservatives have sought to use the result as evidence that they are rebuilding their electoral credibility following their defeat at the last general election. Badenoch suggested the victory demonstrated that her party remains capable of competing effectively in areas where it has not traditionally enjoyed strong support.
“If we can win in Scotland in a seat where we have not won a by-election since 1967, we can win anywhere,” she declared. “We are showing that we are a credible alternative to take over from Labour.”
The result represented a disappointing reversal for the SNP. Scottish First Minister and SNP leader John Swinney acknowledged his disappointment after the defeat, attributing part of the outcome to tactical voting by opposition supporters. Swinney argued that coordinated voting behaviour had significantly influenced the final result.
Behind the scenes, some within the SNP reportedly expressed concern that the party’s stance on oil and gas may have contributed to the loss. An SNP source suggested voters increasingly viewed the party’s position on the industry as weak, particularly in a region where energy employment remains central to the local economy.
Defeated SNP candidate Richard Thomson also pointed to the scale of the Conservative campaign effort. He noted that Badenoch had made multiple visits to the constituency and that the party had devoted substantial resources to securing victory.
“We like not to be out-campaigned,” Thomson said, “but on this occasion the sheer amount of resources we were up against made it difficult to get the result we had hoped for.”
Thomson rejected suggestions that the recent guilty plea of former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell had played a decisive role in the party’s defeat. Murrell, who is due to be sentenced after admitting to embezzling more than £400,000 from the SNP over a 12-year period, has remained a controversial figure within Scottish politics. However, Thomson insisted the issue had little impact on voters’ decisions during the campaign.
Despite the setback in Aberdeen South, the SNP was able to claim success elsewhere. The party retained Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, where lawyer and SNP adviser Lara Bird secured victory after winning nearly 10,000 votes. Reform UK finished second in that contest, while the SNP viewed the result as evidence that support for the party remains resilient in parts of Scotland.
Nevertheless, the Aberdeen South result is likely to dominate political discussion in the coming weeks. For the Conservatives, it represents a symbolic breakthrough and a validation of their strategy of championing the oil and gas industry.
It serves as a warning for Labour that energy policy remains a potent electoral issue, particularly in communities dependent on traditional energy sectors. For the SNP, it raises difficult questions about how to balance environmental ambitions with the economic realities facing regions built around North Sea energy.
The debate over the future of oil and gas production in the North Sea has moved firmly back to the centre of British politics, and Aberdeen has once again become a crucial battleground in the national conversation about energy, jobs and economic security.
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