By Tony O’Riley-
Exit Polls have worrying predicted a tie for the three main political parties in the first preference votes. First indications of an exit poll for the Republic of Ireland’s general election has suggested little difference between Fine Gael, Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil. The exit poll indicates that Fine Gael secured 22.4% of first preference votes, closely followed by Sinn Féin (22.3%) and Fianna Fáil (22.2%).
A margin of error of 1.3% in either direction in the exit poll is a reminder that exit polls can be wrong. Polls often provide a good indication of the final outcome but have been wrong just about often enough not too attach too much credit or reliance on them. Tonight’s Ipsos MRBI exit poll has put Ireland’s big three political parties on 23% of the vote each – with huge uncertainty now overshadowing how the next government can be formed.
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Counting to elect the 33rd Dáil (Irish parliament) will begin on Sunday in all 39 constituencies.None of the parties is expected to reach the 80-seat threshold to enable it to govern on its own, and a coalition administration of some complexion is almost inevitable. The exit poll was released at 10pm on Saturday, with the final results not expected until Sunday morning.
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