By James Simons-
The world was 1.5C hotter in the last 12 months for the first time with January breaking new temperature records, continuing the onslaught of heat, new findings have shown.
The first month of 2024 was 1.66C hotter, marking the warmest January and breaking yet another heat record after the troubling extremes of 2023, according to the European Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
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With this, the global mean temperature over the past twelve months, starting from February 2023 to January 2024, soared 1.52C above the pre-industrial average.
The findings mark the continued acceleration of global heating after last year broke the record for being the hottest year ever. January is also the eighth consecutive month that has set a record as the hottest for its respective month.
“2024 starts with another record-breaking month – not only is it the warmest January on record but we have also just experienced a 12-month period of more than 1.5C above the pre-industrial reference period,” Samantha Burgess, the deputy director of C3S, said.
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This is the first time global average temperatures have been hotter by over 1.5C over a 12-month period.
In 2015, an international agreement was signed by 197 countries vowing to prevent the temperatures rising above 1.5C or maximum 2C above the pre-industrial levels.
However, this record does not yet mean we have breached the Paris Agreement target. But it takes us a lot closer to doing so, scientists say.
“Exceeding 1.5C in one year underlines the rapidly shrinking window of time humanity has to make deep emissions cuts and avoid dangerous climate change,” Dr Matt Patterson, postdoctoral research assistant in atmospheric physics at the University of Oxford, said.
However, he adds: “A single year above the 1.5C threshold is not enough to breach the Paris climate agreement as the agreement concerns temperatures averaged over 20 to 30 years.”
Scientists say while the sudden surge starting from 2023 is driven by natural causes like El Nino as well, the underlying issue remains that carbon pollution from burning fossil fuels.
“Warm ocean temperatures related to the El Niño event in the tropical Pacific will have contributed to the warm global temperatures, but the primary cause is increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere from burning of fossil fuels,” Dr Patterson says.
The C3S findings show Europe experienced a rollercoaster of temperatures – from chilly Nordic countries to scorching southern regions.
Beyond Europe, some areas like eastern Canada, north-western Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia were sizzling, while others like western Canada, central USA, and parts of Siberia were cooler than usual.
“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5C level specified in the Paris Agreement, which refers to long-term warming over many years,” World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said last year. “However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency.”
In December, climate negotiators from around the world agreed at COP28 that countries must transition away from fossil fuels. The deal aims to usher in that transition in a manner that achieves net zero greenhouse gas emissions over the next 26 years, in part by calling for the expanded use of renewable energy.
Like many other countries in Europe, France has experienced an unusually warm January, with temperatures remaining above 0ºC in the French Pyrenees region, leading to lack of snow (European Union, Copernicus Sentinel-2 imagery)
On land, some places like Europe, western USA, parts of Eurasia, and more got wetter than usual, while others, including parts of Spain and Australia, experienced drier conditions, leading to wildfires.
Winter was exceptionally mild across the Southern hemisphere, and now the northern hemisphere is also witnessing low snowfall in several parts, including South Asia and Europe.
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