By Tony O’Reilly-
Former PSNI detective chief superintendent Roy McComb, (pictured)who is now an international consultant in organised crime and justice, said the threat level will only have been increased after careful assessment by MI5, having raised the level from substantial to severe, just 12 months after it had been downgraded.
The detective, who is proactive in the drive to counter organised crime, said the change was based on intelligence they hold about the intentions and capabilities of these terrorist groups, adding that post-Good Friday Agreement it’s “disappointing” to be back at the same threat level Northern Ireland faced 25 years ago.
The emergency move follows a rise in attacks from dissident republicans in the last year.
Detective Chief Inspector John Caldwell was shot by two masked gunmen outside a sports complex in Omagh in February. Police believe the attack was carried out by the New IRA.
Intent and capability have merged, he explained, meaning the capability to use firearms or explosives has increased or it could be related to recruitment of experienced members who have a history of terrorist activities in the 1970s, 1980s or 1990s.
He added that it is a “sad indictment” that the country is living under a terrorism threat.
Mr McComb today expressed fear that the threat level could remain severe for years as there will have to be a change in intent and capability.
Meanwhile, the chair of the Police Federation for Northern Ireland (PFNI), Liam Kelly, said no one should be “surprised” that the threat level has increased.
The PFNI represents rank and file PSNI officers, and Mr Kelly said there are paramilitary and criminal gangs committed to undermining the safety of officers.
“Following the cowardly attempted murder of DCI John Caldwell in Omagh, and other attacks on officers, our colleagues have stepped up their personal security and exercise increased vigilance,” said Mr Kelly.
“Frankly, no one should be surprised by this latest MI5 intelligence assessment which acknowledges the extent of the challenge.
“This escalation in the threat level is justified. One might reasonably ask why it was downgraded to ‘substantial’ in the first place when it was clear dissident republican groups were still actively wedded to causing murder and destruction.
“Our officers will not be deterred from doing what they have to do on behalf of our communities.”
Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris said the public should not be alarmed by the rise in the threat level, but to remain vigilant and report concerns to the PSNI.
PSNI Chief Constable Simon Byrne said the increase in the threat level is part of an “ongoing process of monitoring the threat level in Northern Ireland, which is conducted by MI5”.
“We have spoken publicly about the number of attacks that have taken place in recent months, not least the attempted murder of DCI John Caldwell on February 22,” he added.
“We will relentlessly pursue those who seek to cause harm and terrorise our communities, and attack my officers and staff, and I pay tribute to them as they continue to deliver for our communities.”
DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, said it was “bad news” for Northern Ireland when the risk of further attacks has risen to ‘very likely’.
In a written ministerial statement, Mr Heaton-Harris said the threat level review takes into account “a range of factors and analysis of recent incidents”.
“In recent months, we have seen an increase in levels of activity relating to Northern Ireland-related terrorism, which has targeted police officers serving their communities and also put at risk the lives of children and other members of the public,” he said.
“These attacks have no support, as demonstrated by the reaction to the abhorrent attempted murder of Detective Chief Inspector John Caldwell.
“I pay tribute to the tremendous efforts of the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) and security partners, and the determination and resilience of the Northern Ireland people, who are making Northern Ireland a safer place to live and work.
“The political future of Northern Ireland rests with the democratic will of the people and not the violent actions of the few. Together we will ensure there is no return to the violence of the past.”
Mr Heaton-Harris said the public “should remain vigilant, but not be alarmed”, and continue to report any concerns they have to the PSNI.
He added that the threat level to Northern Ireland “is constantly monitored and is subject to a regular formal review”.
“This is a systematic, comprehensive and rigorous process, based on the very latest intelligence and analysis of factors which drive the threat,” said Mr Heaton-Harris.
“The decision to change the threat level is taken by MI5, independently of ministers.
“Over the last 25 years, Northern Ireland has transformed into a peaceful society. The Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement demonstrates how peaceful and democratic politics improve society. However, a small number of people remain determined to cause harm to our communities through acts of politically motivated violence.”
PSNI Chief Constable Simon Byrne said: “Today (March 28) the threat level has been increased from substantial to severe by MI5. The independent assessment means the threat has moved from an attack is ‘likely’ to an attack is ‘highly likely’.
“This is part of an ongoing process of monitoring the threat level in Northern Ireland, which is conducted by MI5. We have spoken publicly about the number of attacks that have taken place in recent months, not least the attempted murder of Det Chief Insp John Caldwell on February 22.
“We will relentlessly pursue those who seek to cause harm and terrorise our communities, and attack my officers and staff, and I pay tribute to them as they continue to deliver for our communities.
“I would also like to thank the community and political leaders of Northern Ireland for their overwhelming support for the police service in recent times.
“We will not be deterred from delivering a visible, accessible and responsive community focused policing service to keep people safe.”
The chair of the Police Federation for Northern Ireland says no one should be surprised by the raising of the terrorist threat level from ‘substantial’ to ‘severe’.
Liam Kelly said: “This is a step backwards which means an attack is highly likely. There are terrorist and crime gangs in our community who wish to inflict great harm on our officers.
“These groups are committed to the money they made through illegal activities and redundant ideas dressed up as political objectives. The reality is they are dangerous people committed to undermining society and the safety of our officers who uphold the rule of law.
“Following the cowardly attempted murder of Det Chief Insp John Caldwell in Omagh, and other attacks on officers, our colleagues have stepped up their personal security and exercise increased vigilance. Frankly, no one should be surprised by this latest MI5 intelligence assessment which acknowledges the extent of the challenge.
“This escalation in the threat level is justified. One might reasonably ask why it was downgraded to ‘substantial’ in the first place when it was clear dissident republican groups were still actively wedded to causing murder and destruction.
“Our officers will not be deterred from doing what they have to do on behalf of our communities. They are at the forefront of the effort to rid ourselves of this scourge and I would appeal to the public to give colleagues all the help they can in closing down terrorist and crime gang activities.”
Image;policeinsight.com