By Ben Kerrigan-
Professor Chris Whitty was the prophet of doom when today painting a gloomy future for the Uk, one in which the new omixron variant infection spread very quickly .
He said people will be getting infected with the Omicron variant of coronavirus in “very, very, very large numbers” quite soon. It was spreading at “an absolutely phenomenal pace”, he said.
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He played safe in making no estimates for hospitalisation or death rates, but called for caution, and for people to reduce mixing where avoidable.
The government scientist said: ”This is a really serious threat at the moment. How big a threat? There are several things we don’t know. But all the things that we do know are bad and the principal one being the speed at which this is moving, it is moving at an absolutely phenomenal pace.
‘Therefore between the time that it first starts to really take off in a way people will be able to see and the point when we get to very, very, very large numbers will be quite a short one, and that, I think, is part of the issue in trying to deal with this.
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Prediction Of Record Covid Cases
Referring to today’s figures showing recorded Covid cases at a record level, he said:
”I’m afraid we have to be realistic that records will be broken a lot over the next few weeks as the rates continue to go up.
Whitty spoke of doom, as he said that the UK has two epidemics running one on top of the other. He said: What we’ve got is two epidemics on top of one another – an existing Delta epidemic, roughly flat, and a very rapidly growing Omicron epidemic on top of it.
”He said he was fairly certain Omicron would lead to a large increase in the number of people going to hospital.
He said: ”I am afraid there will be an increasing number of Omicron patients going into the NHS, going into hospital, going into intensive cares, and exact ratios we don’t yet know but there will be substantial numbers. That will begin to become apparent, in my view, fairly soon after Christmas.
It’ll start before then but in terms of the big numbers, I think that’s a reasonably, I’m afraid, a reasonably nailed-on prospect.
Absence Of Precise Numbers
There was no prediction on rises in hospital or death rates, which most experts believe sets the benchmark for the measuring the seriousness of the virus. The leading scientist stressed that there was still not enough data available to predict exactly what the impact would be in the UK.
Whitty said that the NHS would be hit by serious staff shortages after Christmas because of people contracting Omicron over the holidays.
Mental health analyst, Deon Vernhoven , said: ”There should be cautin in every winter season in the Uk, more so at a time where a virus or its strain is spreading fast. But the very idea of predicitng doom in such a raw manner,
staff contracting the Omicron virus in hospitals do not account for a country of 60 million, and there are already staff shortages occuring in health settings were some key workers are leaving their jobs over the vaccination mandates.
The Nhs can only do its best to manage hospitalisation rates, but there is a yearning in some quarters to examine how well hospitalisation figures tell the true story in terms of the accurate proportion of the role covid-19 plays compared with any other underlying issues.
One nurse among a few others assisting research on the Omicron Variant as well as medical processes and policies, said ”the Omicron vurus should be observed closely in terms of how virulent it may be, but predictions of doom with no unchallengable facts is not what the British public want to hear”.
Professor Whitty, an accomplished scientist in his field, was ultimately selling the idea of renewed restrictions of social distancing.
His speech seemed to set the tone for a resurging of social distance measures, a scenario the British public are unlikely to be happy return to, especially with the revelations of the past week in which government ministers broke coronavirus rules by staging a number of partie towards the end of last year, 2020.
Wild errors in the predictions of fellow scientist , Neil Ferguson, also warns of the dangers of making sweeping predictions when it comes to pandemics and .
Prediction Of Simultaneous Illness
”Given how much difficulty my health and social care colleagues have had over the last two years, saying that is pretty depressing, because they have really, really had to stand up and go back again and again.
”The reality is this speed of onset is going to lead to lots of people getting ill simultaneously and we have to be realistic about that, he said
The point I’m making is, don’t mix with people you don’t have to … [Focus on] things that really matter to you.
Downing Street had said brits should not cancel parties, and to that, Whitty said “we’re not cancelling people’s parties”. His recommendation is for the public to limit the number of people with whom they interact closely.
The public will at this point follow their own instincts and assessment of the unfolding situation. Many will not take a chance, given the known reality of viruses festering more in cold months, but there will be a sizeable percentge of the public that have lost faith in the government representatives associated with social distancing and pandemic measures.
The Omicron cases reported cannot be underestimated or overestimated at first sight, and it remains to be seen how the British public respond to it this Chrustmas.
Whitty said there should be “really serious caution” over reports that a reduction in hospitalisations was being seen in cases of Omicron in South Africa. He explained:
”The first caution on this is simply a numerical one – if the rate of hospitalisation were to halve but you’re doubling every two days, in two days you’re back to where you were before you actually had the hospitalisation.
If the peak of this is twice as great, then halving of the size of the hospitalisation rate, you still end up in the same place. And this peak is going very fast”.
There is no evidence about the scale of hospitalisations arising from the Omicron variant in the Uk at the moment. Many factors are often left out from reports, including the scale of any underlying illness in covid patients, and an assessment of how much it was affected by the Omicron virus.
Experts have called for the one reported death that has occured to been fully investigated for full background details about the prevelent cause of the death, and the ag group of the individual, and whether they wer e vaccinated or not.
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