Month of June So Far Is Wettest Compared To Previous Five Years

By Samantha Jones-

After one of the warmest and driest springs on record, many Britons expected June 2026 to continue the trend of sunshine, heat and concerns about drought. Instead, much of the country has found itself reaching for umbrellas, switching the heating back on and wondering what happened to summer.

The opening days of June have produced a striking contrast to the weather that dominated much of the spring, prompting questions about whether this year is shaping up to be one of the wettest and most unsettled starts to summer in recent memory. Across social media, weather forums and conversations around the country, the same complaint has emerged repeatedly: it seems to be raining almost every day.

While official monthly rainfall totals for June 2026 will not be available until the month concludes, meteorological data confirms that the first third of the month has been markedly more unsettled than many recent years.

A succession of low-pressure systems has delivered repeated bands of rain, heavy showers, thunderstorms and below-average temperatures across large parts of the United Kingdom. The Met Office has repeatedly described the start of June as “unsettled”, with slow-moving low-pressure systems producing frequent showers and periods of persistent rain. Some areas have experienced rainfall on multiple consecutive days, while temperatures have often been three to five degrees below seasonal norms.

The contrast with the preceding months is particularly remarkable. England emerged from spring having recorded one of its warmest seasons on record, following an exceptionally early heatwave and prolonged dry conditions. Water authorities were already expressing concerns about low rainfall and drought risks after what had been one of the driest starts to a year in decades. Just one year earlier, official figures showed that June 2025 delivered only 80 per cent of average rainfall across England, contributing to the driest start to a year since 1976.

In historical terms, June has always been a variable month in Britain. Contrary to popular perception, it is not guaranteed to be warm and dry. Some of the wettest summers in modern British history have featured notably rainy Junes. However, what has caught public attention this year is not simply the amount of rain but its frequency. In many areas, residents report rain, showers or drizzle occurring on most days since the month began. Although rainfall totals may ultimately end up close to average in some regions, the persistent nature of the unsettled weather has created the impression of a continuous washout.

Weather experts note that frequency and volume are not always the same thing. A month can feel exceptionally wet because rain falls on many days, even if the total accumulation is not record-breaking. Equally, a single storm can deliver a month’s worth of rain in a few hours while leaving many dry days in between. Early indications suggest that June 2026 belongs more to the first category, with repeated rainfall events spread across numerous days rather than a handful of extreme downpours.

One of the principal reasons for this departure from the spring pattern has been the position of the jet stream. Meteorologists have identified a persistent low-pressure regime affecting the UK during the opening weeks of June, steering Atlantic weather systems across the country and preventing high pressure from establishing itself for prolonged periods. The jet stream, a fast-flowing ribbon of air high in the atmosphere, plays a crucial role in determining whether Britain experiences settled or unsettled weather. When it shifts southwards or becomes particularly active, it can direct a procession of rain-bearing systems across the country.

This atmospheric setup stands in sharp contrast to the blocking high-pressure systems that dominated much of spring. During those months, high pressure effectively shielded Britain from Atlantic storms, producing unusually dry and sunny conditions. Once those blocking patterns weakened, the weather reverted to a more Atlantic-driven regime, allowing rain-bearing systems to return.

Climate scientists caution against attributing any single wet month directly to climate change. However, there is growing evidence that global warming is contributing to more erratic and contrasting weather patterns. One of the hallmarks of a warming atmosphere is its ability to hold more moisture. For every degree Celsius of warming, the atmosphere can contain approximately seven per cent more water vapour. This can increase the likelihood of intense rainfall events when conditions are favourable.

Also, climate change appears to be amplifying extremes at both ends of the spectrum. Britain has experienced a succession of unusually warm years, heatwaves and drought concerns alongside episodes of heavy rainfall and flooding. The transition from one extreme to another can be surprisingly abrupt. Recent climate assessments have highlighted how changing rainfall patterns are becoming increasingly evident across the UK, with some periods characterised by prolonged dryness and others by bursts of intense rainfall.

Another possible factor is the lingering influence of large-scale ocean and atmospheric patterns. Scientists monitor phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña because they can influence weather patterns around the world. While their impact on Britain is often indirect and less predictable than in other regions, changes in global circulation patterns can affect the behaviour of the jet stream and the distribution of pressure systems across Europe.

The most likely explanation lies in the atmospheric pattern over the North Atlantic. During the first 11 days of June 2026, the jet stream was positioned so that it repeatedly steered low-pressure weather systems towards the UK, bringing frequent rain and unsettled conditions. In contrast, during many of the previous five years, stronger areas of high pressure over Britain or nearby Europe often blocked these Atlantic systems, allowing warmer, sunnier and drier weather to dominate early June.

As a result, the opening 11 days of June 2026 have felt significantly wetter, cooler and more changeable than the starts to most recent Junes, marking a noticeable departure from the pattern many Britons have become accustomed to in recent summers.

Yet despite the gloomy start to June, meteorologists are urging caution before declaring the month a complete washout. Forecasts indicate that higher pressure may become more influential during the latter half of the month, potentially bringing warmer and drier conditions. Some forecasts suggest temperatures could climb into the high twenties Celsius in parts of England, producing a dramatic reversal from the chilly, rain-soaked conditions that have characterised the opening weeks.

This possibility highlights another defining feature of British weather- its extraordinary capacity for rapid change. A month that begins with umbrellas and jackets can end with sunshine and heat. Historical records contain numerous examples of Junes that started poorly before finishing with extended warm spells.

Even so, June 2026 has already secured a place as one of the more memorable starts to summer in recent years. Whether measured by the frequency of rainfall, the prevalence of low-pressure systems or the sheer disappointment felt by sun-seeking Britons after an exceptionally warm spring, the month has confounded expectations. The irony is that only weeks ago much of the conversation centred on drought risks and unusually dry conditions. Now, the national mood has shifted towards frustration over rain, grey skies and unseasonably cool temperatures. Such abrupt swings may become increasingly familiar as climate variability combines with Britain’s naturally changeable weather.

The verdict on June 2026 remains unfinished. It may yet recover and deliver the sunshine many had anticipated. But if the first half of the month is any guide, this year will be remembered as the June that broke sharply from the recent pattern of warm, dry early summers and reminded Britain that even in the age of climate change, the weather remains gloriously unpredictable. weather forecasters predict warmer weather from this weekend  for the next week ahead. Below is a table depicting the weather for the month of June up until the 11th for the past five years

London (1–11 June)

London Ranking (Warmest → Coolest)

1. 2023
2. 2025
3. 2022
4. 2021
5. 2024
6. 2026*

Manchester (1–11 June)

Manchester Ranking

1. 2025
2. 2023
3. 2022
4. 2021
5. 2024
6. 2026*

Edinburgh (1–11 June)

Edinburgh Ranking

1. 2023
2. 2025
3. 2022
4. 2021
5. 2024
6. 2026*

Combined Scorecard (First 11 Days of June)

London

Recent early Junes have often featured several days above 20°C, with some years seeing temperatures into the mid-20s by the second week. For example, June 2021 started very warm, with highs reaching around 25–27°C during the first week.

By contrast, public observations and weather discussions in June 2026 suggest many areas around London have experienced frequent rain, cloud cover, and temperatures closer to 14–18°C for much of the first 10 days

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• Date
  11th June 2026