By Ben Kerrigan-
A no-deal Brexit would have adverse effects that would cause delays at Dover, widespread protests, disruption and potential shortages of food, medicines and fuel, according to a document that details the worst-case scenario laid out in the government’s official “Operation Yellowhammer” plan.
British Mps finally released the controversial document on Wednesday night after defeating the government in the Commons over the disclosure of its contents. It follows months of secrecy over the worrying implications of a Brexit no deal.
The predictions are worrying and set out a series of disadvantages and inconveniences that would follow from the Uk leaving The EU without a deal. Boris Johnson himself is yet to respond to the contents in the documents. Unless he refers to them as falling under his pre referendum branding of ”project fear”, they foretell a difficult and challenging time for ordinary brits and immigrants coming o the Uk.
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One paragraph in the documents has been redacted due to “commercial sensitivity”.
Opposition MPs demanded the release of private messages between key Downing Street aides, including exchanges on WhatsApp and Facebook . The drama unfolded after the Supreme Court in Scotland ruled that over Boris Johnson’s five-week suspension of parliament was unlawful.
PROTESTS AND PUBLIC DISORDER
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The document claims there would be :
“Protests and counter-protests will take place across the UK and may absorb significant amounts of police resource.
“There may also be a rise in public disorder and community tensions.”
The Government describes the scenario outlined in the document, part of which has been redacted, as the “reasonable worst case scenario”.
The document also says: “Low-income groups will be disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel.”
The document’s assumptions are “as of August 2” this year, and it notes that day one after the scheduled EU exit on October 31 is a Friday, “which may not be to our advantage” and may coincide with the end of the October half-term school holidays.
The Government dossier says France will impose EU mandatory controls on UK goods “on day 1 no deal” – D1ND as the document refers to it – and have built infrastructure and IT systems to manage and process customs declarations and support a risk-based control regime.
DISRUPTIONS
“The lack of trader readiness combined with limited space in French ports to hold ‘unready’ HGVs could reduce the flow rate to 40-60% of current levels within one day as unready HGVs will fill the ports and block flow.
“The worst disruption to the short Channel Straits might last for up to 3 months before it improves by a significant level to around 50-70% (due to more traders getting prepared), although there could continue to be some disruption for significantly longer.
“Disruption to flow across the short Channel Straits would also cause significant queues in Kent and delays to HGVs attempting to use the routes to travel to France.
“In a reasonable worst-case scenario, HGVs could face maximum delays of 1.5-2.5 days before being able to cross the border.”
INCREASED IMMIGRATION CHECKS
The document says UK citizens travelling to and from the EU “may be subject to increased immigration checks at EU border posts”. “This may lead to passenger delays at St Pancras, Cheriton (Channel Tunnel) and Dover where juxtaposed controls are in place.
“Dependent on the plans EU member states put in place to cope with these increased immigration checks, it is likely that delays will occur for UK arrivals and departures at EU airports and ports.
“This could cause some disruption on transport services. Travellers may decide to use alternative routes to complete their journey.”
DECREASE OF FRESH FOOD SUPPLIES
On food, it warns that some fresh supplies will decrease and that “critical dependencies for the food chain” such as key ingredients “may be in shorter supply”.
It says these factors would not lead to overall food shortages “but will reduce the availability and choice of products and will increase price, which could impact vulnerable groups”.
The risk to water supplies is low, it says, with water companies “well prepared for any disruptions
CONCERN
Prior to the publication of the documents,business secretary Andrea Leadsom said it would be a mistake to publish the documents because they would only “concern” people. “I actually do not think that it serves people well to see what is absolutely the worst thing that could happen,” she said. The document, put together by a unit in the Cabinet Office with input from various government departments, said that France could potentially impose EU mandatory controls on goods coming into Dover on day one. That could cut by 40-60 per cent the flow of lorries going across the Channel, causing severe disruption for up to three months.
CROSS BOARDER DELAYS
“In a reasonable worst-case scenario, HGVs could face maximum delays of 1.5-2.5 days before being able to cross the border.”The paper, marked “official sensitive”, predicted passenger delays at the Eurostar terminal at St Pancras and at Dover with disruption on transport services. Fuel distribution could be hit in London and the south-east while panic buying could spread to other parts of the country. It suggested that medical supplies would be “particularly vulnerable to severe extended delays” given that three-quarters of medicines come via the Dover-Calais route. Any disruption to medicines for vets could lead to disease outbreaks. The document admitted that the government might not be able to calculate the full impact on the supply chain for food and agriculture:
PANIC BUYING
“Certain types of fresh food supply will decrease,” it says. “There is a risk that panic buying will cause or exacerbate food supply disruption. ”While water supplies could feel the effect of a failure in the chemical supply chain, the likelihood was considered low and the impact would be in terms of hundreds of thousands of people rather than millions. Other hurdles could include disruption to cross-border UK financial services, problems with the flow of personal data from the EU, delays to some insurance payments from UK insurers into the EU, and disruption to law-enforcement data and information-sharing with the bloc.
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