By Martin Cole
A poll has found that former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is ahead of far-right incumbent Jair Bolsanaeo, as he received two major endorsements as his campaign ahead of a run off election against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro on October 30.
A survey by IPEC taken over the three days since the first round vote found Lula with 51% voter support against Bolsonaro’s 43%, with a margin of error of two percentage points.
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Lula’s lead of 8 percentage points in the IPEC poll is better than his advantage in the first-round vote, but is a lot narrower than the 14-point lead that the same pollster reported on Saturday – underscoring that it is an increasingly competitive race. Polls are often a strong indicator of eventual outcomes, but are not fully reliable. History is filled with examples of polls that got it wrong, but those instances are still in the minority.More endorsements for Lula continue to occur, making his final victory more likely than not.
Simone Tebet, the center-right candidate who came in third place during the first round with 4% of the vote, has called on the 5 million people who voted for her to back Lula in the second round.
The extra support comes after a survey by IPEC over the three days since the first round vote found Lula with 51% voter support against Bolsonaro’s 43%, with a margin of error of two percentage points.
“For my love for Brazil, for democracy and for the constitution, for the courage I never lacked, I apologise to my friends and companions who begged for neutrality in this second round,” Tebet told reporters in Sao Paulo. “What is at stake is far greater than each of us.”
Tebet, an anti-abortion Catholic, was popular among some conservative voters and women. Analysts say her endorsement of Lula is a symbolic win for the leftist who was president from 2003 to 2010.
“I maintain my criticism of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva,” she added. “But I will give him my vote, because I recognise his commitment to democracy and the constitution, which I have never seen from the current president.”
President Bolsonaro has for months cast doubt on the integrity of Brazil’s election system , openly declaring like Donald Trump did in the U.S elections that election fraud involving the complicity of Brazil’s electoral and judicial authority would Those claims were made without evidence and despite audits by independent monitors. Nevertheless, around 30% of Bolsonaro supporters are cynical of the country’s electoral system.
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Former president backs Lula
Former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, also announced his support for Lula’s “history of struggle for democracy and social inclusion” over Bolsonaro.
The 91-year-old posted photos of himself with a young Lula distributing pro-democracy pamphlets during the military dictatorship that lasted from 1964 to 1985.
Lula was defeated by Cardoso at the 1994 and 1998 presidential elections until he eventually won against a different candidate in 2002.
An opinion poll released on Wednesday by IPEC found that Lula had 51% voter support compared to 43% for Bolsonaro.
The poll surveyed 2,000 with a error margin of 2 percentage points.
On Tuesday, Lula also secured the support of the fourth-placed candidate, leftist Ciro Gomes, who went along with the decision of his Democratic Labor Party to back Lula but who did not provide the same ringing public endorsement.
Tebet and Gomes received 7% of votes on Sunday. Lula garnered 48.4% in the first round – just shy of the majority needed for an outright victory. Bolsonaro got 43.2% of votes, beating opinion polls and fanning hope among his supporters.
Bolsonaro has secured the support of the governors in Brazil’s three most populous states – battlegrounds in the southeast where he and Lula are focusing their campaigning.
Romeu Zema, the re-elected governor of Minas Gerais, endorsed Bolsonaro, as did Sao Paulo’s outgoing governor, Rodrigo Garcia, and Rio de Janeiro’s Claudio Castro, who won his re-election bid
However, IPEC and other pollsters also predicted a higher lead over Bolsonaro than during the first round.