By Lucy Caulkett-
UK scientists from the Sage group are pressurising Boris Johnson for a third national lockdown to help prevent the NHS from “collapse”
The group said tougher restrictions are necessary because Tier 4 rules have shown no sign of controlling the new variant which is up to 70% more transmissible. The new variant was known about since last September, but has reportedly started to become more infectious just before the Christmas period in December.
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The group urged Boris Johnson to avoid “doing too little, too late” yet again and act now to prevent a “catastrophe”, adding that Tier 4 rules aren’t enough, and claimed schools are unsafe and should remain closed until February.
It also called for the UK to impose “proper” border controls and support the vaccine roll-out to other countries. They predicted that the fact the new variant is more infectious will lead to more patients in hospital and deaths.
Independent Sage said the pandemic in England is “at the most threatening stage of the entire year” and pressures on the NHS will get “significantly worse” in January.
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Deaths
The group said over 27,000 people have died within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test since September, compared to almost 37,000 from March to August this year.
“There were over 3,000 deaths in the last week alone, reflecting people infected at the beginning of December,” a spokesperson said.
The spokesperson added: “This means that the number of deaths will, unfortunately, increase and keep increasing for several weeks yet. Deaths from the second wave will probably exceed those in the first wave at some point in January.
“The greater transmissibility of [the new variant] has tipped us into a new, even more serious, pandemic. We are no longer in the same pandemic we were in up to December.”
Independent Sage said that the failure of the prime minister to impose a circuit-breaker lockdown in September allowed the new variant of Covid-10 to spread widely. The group said the November lockdown was not enough to keep the virus in check.
They said the fact the new variant is more infectious will lead to more patients in hospital and deaths.
Independent Sage said Tier 2 and 3 restrictions do not appear to be tough enough to suppress the standard strain, due to increases in cases in those areas.
Boris Johnson is known to cave in to pressure for lockdowns by scientists, after opposing efforts for a second lockdown a few months after the first national lockdown in March.
The prime minister’s decision to yield to the view of scientists can be seen as a willingness to respond to facts presented to him by scientists, but there are fears among some academics studying the duration of overall restrictions that extended lockdowns that are too damaging to the economy makes little sense.
The concern of the Nhs becoming overstretched is also an issue that cannot be ignored, which is why the prime minister is in a difficult position.
Analysts believe scientists want a lockdown to be established until a reliable vaccine is rolled out.
The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine was today approved for use in the UK, with the first doses due to be given on Monday amid rising coronavirus cases.
The UK has ordered 100 million doses – enough to vaccinate 50 million people. The quicker more people get vaccinated, the sooner in theory we will be out of lockdown. One condition for the return to normality in the event of another lockdown could be the effectiveness of the vaccine in restricting the spread of the virus.
Until then, another national lockdown will increase mental health issues among the most vulnerable mentally and affect employment chances for millions of the unemployed whose area of work cannot be done from home. Those already in employment at the time of the lockdown will benefit from the British government’s furlough scheme which pays 80% of their wages.
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