By Ben Kerrigan-
In a test of political strength for Britain’s ruling Labour Party, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has insisted that only Labour can defeat Reform UK in the upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election, warning that a vote split elsewhere could pave the way for a dramatic challenge from the right-wing populist party.
Starmer made the remarks ahead of his diplomatic trip to China this week underscoring how domestic political dramas at home are unfolding alongside foreign engagements.
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The February 26 by-election was triggered by the resignation of former Labour MP Andrew Gwynne, a seat the party comfortably held at the 2024 general election with just over half the vote.
Yet polls and public sentiment suggest this once-secure constituency could become a flashpoint in the battle for Britain’s political centre ground, with Reform UK positioning itself as a major challenger and the Green Party also seeking to capitalise on disaffection with the major parties.
Starmer has repeatedly described the Gorton and Denton contest as a “straight fight” between Labour and Reform UK a framing that directly sidelines smaller parties and attempts to consolidate the progressive vote behind his party.
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At a recent media briefing, the Prime Minister stressed that “there’s only one party that can stop Reform and that’s the Labour Party,” urging voters to reject what he has called the politics of “toxic division.”
Reform UK, led nationally by Nigel Farage, has selected Matt Goodwin a GB News presenter and political commentator as its candidate for the by-election. Goodwin has described the campaign as a “referendum on Keir Starmer,” tapping into sentiments of frustration among some constituents over issues such as immigration, economic stagnation, and public services.
That messaging resonates against a backdrop where Reform UK has grown its profile significantly in recent elections. The party’s victory in the 2025 Runcorn and Helsby by-election a seat Labour had held for decades was seen as a warning sign to Labour strategists about the potential for Reform to make serious inroads in working-class heartlands.
Labour’s insistence on its centrality in this race comes amid concerns that voting fragmentation could help Reform or even the Greens benefit. The Green Party, led locally by Zack Polanski, has sought to attract progressive voters, proposing an alternative to both Labour and Reform with a focus on environmental and social justice issues.
Polanski has characterised the contest as a battle between “hope and hate,” aiming to build momentum from left-wing and pro-Gaza activists.
Despite this, Starmer’s strategy has been to downplay other parties’ chances and reinforce Labour’s role as the only credible bulwark against Reform’s rise.
Government figures, including Deputy Labour leader Lucy Powell, have echoed this message, arguing that a vote for anyone else risks splitting the vote and inadvertently helping Reform. “Only a vote for Labour can stop Reform’s toxic politics,” she said at a local campaign event.
Reform’s campaign has been marked by controversy as well. Goodwin’s refusal to distance himself from remarks suggesting that some people born in the UK from minority ethnic backgrounds were not necessarily British has drawn widespread criticism from political opponents and community leaders. Critics say such rhetoric underscores a divisive appeal that is less about local policy and more about nation-wide identity politics.
Internally, too, the Labour Party has been wrestling with strategy. Starmer’s decision to block Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing as Labour’s candidate reportedly to avoid triggering a costly mayoral election has provoked dissent among local activists and may complicate the party’s efforts to present a unified front. Breakdowns between the national leadership and local party members could weaken Labour’s campaign if not managed carefully.
National Narrative and Party Dynamics
The significance of the Gorton and Denton by-election extends beyond local politics. For Starmer and Labour, it presents a broader challenge: can the party retain its traditional strongholds in the face of rising populist pressures on the right and energised challengers on the left? Success here would reinforce Labour’s narrative of pragmatic governance and cost-of-living solutions, while a poor result could embolden critics of Starmer’s leadership and strategy.
Reform UK has capitalised on public concerns over issues like public services, immigration, and perceived political stagnation. With the Conservatives weakened and fractured, Reform has positioned itself as the primary vehicle for disaffected voters seeking an alternative to the political mainstream a strategy that Labour fears could siphon support away from it, particularly in constituencies with strong working-class and younger electorates.
The Greens, meanwhile, have emphasised social justice, cost-of-living relief, and environmental stewardship, hoping to draw those voters frustrated with both Labour and Reform. Their presence in the race adds complexity to Starmer’s messaging about a binary contest, forcing Labour to argue not just against Reform but also for progressive unity.
Opinion polling suggests the by-election could be competitive. While Labour previously held Gorton and Denton with a healthy margin in the 2024 general election, recent local and national polls have shown Reform polling strongly in parts of Greater Manchester, and the Greens making gains in progressive circles.
This competitive field has forced Labour to refine its pitch to voters, stressing stability, experience, and delivery on bread-and-butter issues.
Political analysts in Westminster note that by-elections can be unpredictable, especially when propelled by wider trends in national opinion. A strong performance by Reform could send shockwaves through Labour’s national strategy, raising questions about the party’s ability to hold ground against populist movements in future general elections.
Conversely, a decisive Labour victory would reinforce Starmer’s leadership and policy direction, bolstering the argument that Labour remains the default party of government in the UK’s first-past-the-post system.
Recent internal Labour discussions have reflected this tension. Some party figures argue that victory requires appealing broadly to the centre-ground and avoiding alienation of moderate voters, while others believe Labour must more aggressively frontline cost-of-living reforms and social policy innovation to counter Reform’s appeal. This debate encapsulates a larger strategic choice: broaden Labour’s coalition or deepen its core progressive commitments.
Starmer’s framing of the contest as a binary choice between Labour and Reform highlights the party’s attempt to consolidate its traditional base while drawing clear contrasts with Reform’s platform.
Labour’s emphasis on “Labour values” defined as delivering for families, reducing cost-of-living pressures, and strengthening public services is intended to resonate with voters in Gorton and Denton who have historically placed trust in the party’s track record.
At the same time, Labour strategists are acutely aware that internal unity matters. Discontent over the Burnham decision and grassroots calls for a more inclusive candidate selection process reflect broader questions about the party’s internal democracy and responsiveness to local concerns factors that could influence voter turnout and engagement.
With the by-election draws closer, political commentators are paying close attention to campaigning dynamics on the ground and the national narrative emanating from Westminster.
With Labour arguing it is the only party capable of stopping Reform, and Reform pushing its message of renewal and change, Gorton and Denton may prove to be one of the most watched electoral contests heading into 2026.
The Gorton and Denton by-election is not simply a local contest, but a potential bellwether for the state of British politics in the mid-2020s.
Sir Keir Starmer’s assertion that only Labour can beat Reform reflects both tactical calculation and a broader philosophical claim about where British politics should be headed one rooted in stability, economic competence, and collective governance.
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