By Aaron Miller-
The United States experts are split on projections of deaths of those arising from Covid-19 after America recorded more coronavirus deaths than it did with Italy.
More than 19,700 people in the U.S. have died due to complications from the coronavirus as of Saturday afternoon, according to data from the Johns Hopkins University dashboard suggests that over 19,700 have died since. Friday, the U.S. saw its highest daily death count yet, at 2,108.
Opinions are split about the number of people dying from the coronavirus in the U.S. University of Washington has projected about 60,000 deaths in the country, about 25% less deaths than those projected in a White House release less than two weeks ago.
“The real data are telling us that it is highly likely that we’re having a definite positive effect by this mitigation things that we’re doing – this physical separation – so I believe we are gonna see a downturn in that,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, (pictured)the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told NBC’s “Today” show on April 9.
“And it looks more like the 60,000 than the 100,000 to 200,000.”
Dr. Deborah Birx of the White House task force on Friday warned that we haven’t reached the worst of the epidemic, even though the University of Washington’s model projecting Friday as the peak of daily deaths. The U.S reported 32,385 new cases, with 1,783 on the same day does no favours to the hope of seeing the lockdown end anytime soon, but one day may not accurately predict figures for the future.
Indication
U.S experts are aiming to use Italy’s curve as an indication of predicting expected fatalities in the U.S within a range of weeks and months. Competent predictions could help assess the reasonable point at which the true benefits of the lockdown can be assessed.
An earlier University of Washington model had projected 82,000 deaths, as opposed to the 240,000 estimated on March 31, the White House released estimates that as many as 240,000 Americans may die in the crisis. In mid-March, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s worst-case-scenario had about 160 million to 210 million Americans infected by December, and an estimate that between 200,000 and 1.7 million people could die by the end of the year.
“The changes in the model are driven by new data and improved methods, particularly around estimating how uncertain the forecasts may be,” Roth said. “As we receive more data on COVID-19 deaths, we expect our projections to adjust to follow those new trends.”