By Charlotte Webster-
Recent update from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) that twice as many deaths involving Covid occurred this summer compared with last summer, misrepresents the overall facts about the impact of Covid on deaths during the pandemic and this summer.
The latest statistics of deaths involving Covid do not tell us precisely what role the virus played in those deaths, and what role external factors played.
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The ONS have also been careful to state that its bulletin is based ”primarily on death registrations”. ”Analysis by month of death registration is consistent with the weekly death registrations bulletin and allows for a more timely analysis than would be possible using death occurrences”, it states.
The ONS also states that ”our definition of COVID-19 (regardless of whether it was the underlying cause or mentioned elsewhere on the death certificate) includes some cases where the certifying doctor suspected the death involved COVID-19 but was not certain (U07.2)
The ONS itself states that ”a doctor may have clinically diagnosed COVID-19 based on symptoms but this diagnosis may not have been confirmed with a test, so they may write “suspected COVID-19″ on the death certificate”. It subsequently adds that of the 156,595 deaths due to COVID-19, 4,156 (2.7%) were classified as “suspected” COVID.
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According to the ONS, deaths involving people with Covid in 2022 remain far below last year, and over 5,700 Covid deaths have been registered since 8 June when two Omicron subvariants became dominant. The figure stated to be 95% higher than in the same period last year when there were 2,936 deaths involving Covid across the UK provides an incomplete picture of the cause of those deaths.
The statistics states that in July 2022, when considering the 2016 to 2019 and 2021 five-year average, excess deaths in England were 3,898 above what we would expect in a “normal” year, compared with 4,431 when using the 2015 to 2019 average. The statistics do not explain the potential causes of the excess deaths as being unrelated to Covid-19.
It adds that inn England, the number of daily deaths due to COVID-19 increased in July 2022. When the ONS say daily deaths due to Covid-19 increased, the impression is that these individuals were generally healthy with no other issues besides Covid-19. Specific examples of this deaths will be sought by this publication.
The ONS defines a pre-existing condition as any condition that either preceded the disease of interest (for example, COVID-19) in the sequence of events leading to death, or was a contributory factor in the death, but not part of the causal sequence. How they determine that a condition that preceded Covid-19 was not part of the causal sequence in not weakening the immune system deserves exploration. Much will depend on what the preceding condition was, and its impact on various patients.
The statistics revealed that in Wales, the COVID-19 mortality rate increased to 36.1 deaths per 100,000 people in July 2022, almost three times the rate in the previous month (12.9 deaths per 100,000 people, June 2022).
The ONS also reveals that the proportion of deaths due to COVID-19, when COVID-19 was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, increased in England and Wales in July 2022 since June 2022.
However, the British public are not interested in death certificates where Covid 19 is mentioned anywhere, if this involves other underlying illness without a measure of whether the other illness or Covid 19 was the main cause of death. Statistics of this kind is unhelpful in the full scheme of things.
Notably, the ONS also revealed that the COVID-19 mortality rate in Wales has increased to a similar level to May 2022, but is half the rate of January 2022 (72.2 deaths per 100,000 people.COVID-19 infections continued to decrease in England, Wales and Scotland and decreased in Northern Ireland
The statistics show that infections continued to decrease in all age groups in England, except for those in school Year 12 to age 24 years where the trend was uncertain in the latest week
ONS figures indicating that deaths caused by the latest Covid wave fuelled by the two more transmissible Omicron subvariants, BA.4 and BA.5, which became dominant in early June is misleading.
In an article aimed at rebutting a claim made by the Telegraph last Friday that the effects of lockdowns were responsible for many deaths, the HuffPost post reported that ambulance services have been struggling immensely of late, leaving people waiting for up to 15 hours in some cases before being able to reach them.
The publication also credibly reported that patients also on occasions arrived at hospitals without being able to receive further treatment for even more time because of a lack of spare beds or medical staff to treat them, a problem the NHS was experiencing even before Covid.
It points out that nearly 30,000 people waited more than 12 hours in England’s A&Es in July, a record-high, according to data from the NHS.
The publication also points out the fact that more people are dying this summer than last is most pronounced in the older age groups, a trend that has been consistent throughout the Covid pandemic. Almost half of the deaths recorded this summer in England and Wales were among people aged 85 and over compared with 27% of the deaths in 2021.
Deaths involving Covid have been the highest among old people throughout the pandemic, particularly the over-85s who have recorded the highest increase in the death rate, which is 180% higher this summer than it was in summer 2021. Older people within the bracket of 75 and 84 have also seen more deaths; also attributable to external issues involving other ailments.
The office of National Statistics needs to be careful not to publish data that gives misleading information.
A lot of misleading information surrounding Covid deaths were rife throughout the pandemic, and used to justify Covid.
This publication caught hospitals who were testing every patient who arrived in hospital for Covid during the pandemic, include patients who arrived in hospital for reasons unrelated to Covid like broken ankles in their statistics of people hospitalised for Covid. This was scandalous.
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