By Tony O’Riley-
Scientists should be careful in predictions of record-breaking deaths in relation to Covid-19, and avoid any appearance that Covid-19 deaths numbers in competition with past records, to be broken.
Despite an observed easing in case numbers, alongside the vaccine rollout, some scientists are continuing to predict increases in Covid-19 deaths. The predictions are likely based on past trends in Covid-19 death rates, or present indications, but it provides no complete grounds for forecasting future death rates.
The reporting of covid-19 deaths, which includes projections made by scientists, and also media reporting, is being studied by a select group of analysts that includes journalists, lawyers , social workers, and teachers, in search of an illuminating analysis and understanding of the forces that lead to decisions being made.
Scientists say Covid deaths and hospital admissions are not expected to fall until next week. It follows reported daily increases in Covid-19 related deaths recently.
Dr Michael Head, from the University of Southampton, today warned cases from early January would likely result in deaths “peaking” around the end of this month, adding: “We will see several more record-breaking days in terms of newly-reported deaths.”
Dr Head is an accomplished scientist who previously spent 11 years at UCL in the Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and the Farr Institute for Health Informatics.
He completed his postgraduate study in Epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and an undergraduate degree in Biomedical Sciences at the University of Portsmouth.
Past projections of Covid-19 deaths made in the past have been found to be erroneous, questioning, how much reliance should be placed in them. Headlines in March predicting 550 deaths proved to be inaccurate, and were and later criticised when they failed.
Professor Ferguson, who was behind many of the early predictions, had overestimated deaths from previous public health scares such as bird flu, BSE and foot and mouth disease. Similar claims also appeared in The Spectator and National Review.
Wrong Past Projections
The UK has also in the past been criticised for an wrong wrongly presented the projection of Covid-19 deaths. A chart claiming that deaths could surpass the first wave peak and reach 1,500 deaths a day by December. The figures were based on data available up to 28 October and revised twice to 1,000 a day and 800 a day.
Forecasting increases in Covid-19 deaths have shown to be unreliable, and is not best practise even when the forecasters have good intentions and believe they have good reasons to make those predictions.
The poor track record of high death rates predictions makes it a bad idea for scientists to make a habit of announcing such bad and unverifiable news. There are speculations that scientists who are quick to announce high death forecasts, are doing so either to attract attention to themselves, fear monger, or just to subtly promote themselves, using the pandemic as an opportunity to show off their professional eminence.
Forecasts are important in most fields, but the regular spreading of horrifying news by scientists based on a system that has been exposed before requires extreme care.