By Aaron Miller-
Americans will choose the man to lead them into the next four years in one of the most tense presidential polls in decades. They will choose between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden.
A few key factors will decide how Americans have decided to select their winner. More Americans have already cast their ballots in early voting, in one of the highest attended elections in U.S history. With over 100 million votes already cast before election day, polling found Mr Biden led on 66 per cent among these voters. Of those voting today, 69 per cent favoured President Trump.
National polls give a firm lead to Mr Biden, but it he almost neck and neck race in the battleground states could decide the outcome. Americans are divided on who to lead them, but Biden is a slight favourite to win the elections. Trump’s chances of serving a second term remain very much alive. Both men have used the pandemic to their advantage in different ways. Biden appeals to the masses of Americans who consider Trump as taking a reckless position towards Covid-19, while the present U.S leader appeals to those in support of his general liberal attitude to the virus which has claimed over 200,000 American lives.
Trump has an anti lockdown approach, choosing to favour the protection of the economy over lockdown measures. The president, who has been condemned for his seeming leaning towards White Supremacists, will have large voters from far right groups also support his presidency. There are many voters who prefer Trump for reasons that exclude race in any form or shape, like Evangelicals, who have warmed up to the president, most likely because he has accommodated them and their ideals, including his anti-abortion stance and promotion of religious views against gay marriage.
Trump will be short of fans in the gay community in America, nor will many who feel strongly about the right of a woman to have an abortion want him in my power. Sometimes, voting is about selecting the man closer to our overall values, even when they stand for other values we strongly loathe.
Biden has cut a bit more of the conventional presidential figure throughout his campaign and debate. The Democrat has come across as a responsible, serious president, who wants the best for Americans. Families really concerned about the coronavirus will gravitate towards Biden, and bring with them all voters who strongly take exception to President Donald Trump. Most Americans either like Trump or can’t stand him; there are very few in the middle sitting on the fence.
Race
Race could also turn out to be a key issue, as many Afro Americans who view the president as racist will be moved to vote for Biden. There could still be an overlap in the African American Community for those who favour Trump’s prioritisation of the economy over lockdowns. This will be among the sceptics who see the virus as just a seasonal flu, but the thousands who have lost people close to them due to the deadly virus, will vote firmly in support of Biden.
Hispanic and Latino Americans are the largest ethnic minority, comprising an estimated 18% of the population. It is a safe bet that a larger percentage of these groups will select Biden, if anything, just to get Trump out. African Americans are the second largest racial minority, comprising an estimated 13.4% of the population. Over 50 % of voters from this group will select Biden.
The White, non-Hispanic or Latino population make up 61% of the nation’s total, with the total White population ,including White Hispanics and Latinos, comprising 77% of the whole.
Mr Trump told Fox News today that he felt good about his chances of victory and predicting he would win “big” in key states such as Florida and Arizona.
“I think we have a really solid chance of winning,” he said. Asked when he would declare victory, he added: “When there’s victory. If there’s victory… there’s no reason to play games.”
Joe Biden visited his hometown of Scranton in Pennsylvania , where he spoke of restoring the backbone of America.”
“We’ve got to restore the backbone to this country,” he said. “The middle class built this country – Wall Street didn’t”.
Melania Trump has cast her vote at a voting center in Palm Beach, Florida, close to Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort.
Asked why she did not vote with the Republican president last week, the first lady told reporters: “It’s Election Day so I wanted to come here to vote today for the election.”
The first polls close in most of Indiana and Kentucky. In Indiana, Vigo county on the Illinois border has voted with the winner of the presidential election every time for the past 64 years since 1956.
Elections in the U.S work differently to other countries because the head of state is elected separately to lawmakers who sit in Congress.
While there are other parties who stand their own candidates for the presidency, the US basically has a two-party system for presidential elections.
Electoral College
In presidential elections, voting members of the public do not vote directly for the president. Rather, they vote to elect a group of officials in their state who make up the electoral college.
Each state gains a number of electoral votes relative to the number of seats in Congress the state has.
The candidate with the highest number of electoral votes when all the states are counted will win the presidency. There are 538 members of the electoral college, known as electors, with a candidate needing to win half of them plus one to win the election, or 270.
The electoral college makes the presidential race even tighter than the polls suggest, but most experts believe that as unreliable as the polls can be, Biden will this time win the presidency when the leader is announced.