By Aaron Miller-
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington has projected an increase in expected COVID-19 deaths in the U.S by August this year.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research organisation at the University of Washington School of Medicine that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world’s most important health problems. The organisation analyses the strategies used to address them.
Their Death projections rose to a total of 137,184 cumulative COVID-19 deaths (estimate range of 102,783 to 223,489) through the beginning of August. This follows the Institute’s May 4 forecast of 134,475 deaths. It follows continued instructions from officials in California to residents to continue to maintain social distancing.
IHME Director Dr Christopher Murray said:
“The increase is explained primarily by people’s movements, as captured in anonymous mobility data from cell phones,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray. “We’re also seeing fewer deaths expected in some states; however, we’re now forecasting slower downward trajectories in deaths after states hit their peaks in daily deaths.”
”Unless and until we see accelerated testing, contact tracing, isolating people who test positive, and widespread use of masks in public, there is a significant likelihood of new infections,” Murray said in the release.
Other indications used are from increasing testing and the presumption that those testing positive are self-isolating, as well as increases in temperature. IHME has found that when the outdoor temperature increases 1 degree Celsius, there is evidence the rate of virus transmission drops between 2% and 3%.
The findings also show that over the last few weeks, five states – Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, South Dakota, and Georgia – have seen at least a 20 percentage point increase in mobility patterns. In addition, 13 states have experienced between a 15 and 20 percentage point increase: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
“While at least some of these patterns may be related to formal easing of social distancing policies, this upward trend in movement began in several places long before state-level mandates were relaxed,” Murray said. “Unless and until we see accelerated testing, contact tracing, isolating people who test positive, and widespread use of masks in public, there is a significant likelihood of new infections.” IHME’s current forecasting lasts through August 4. Subsequent projections likely will extend into October and will include potential effects of students returning to school.