By Ben Kerrigan-
Scientists gave Welsh ministers conflicting advice that a two-week post-Christmas lockdown would have an impact in holding back Covid, but changed this advice two days later, eventually considering a full lockdown to have negligible benefits but high costs.
Under the advice, there would be restrictions in pubs, cinemas and theatres, with gyms, swimming pools and leisure centres closed.
The Technical Advice Cell (TAC) which examines data and models how different restrictions would work, published one paper for ministers on 15 December, suggesting lockdown measures for two weeks would have “a material effect on reducing the peak” by December 27, but changed the advice on 17 December, suggesting only a four-week lockdown would work.
Further measures, similar to alert level two, were eventually announced five days
A second TAC report, dated December 17, suggested the differences between alert level two and alert level four, which included a full lockdown were minimal if restrictions were in place for only two weeks, as it will only delay the impact of infections, but if restrictions were in place for four weeks, then a full lockdown would have a greater impact.
The news revealed by the BBC shows the limitations of scientific expertise, as in this case the experts changed their minds back and forth, and eventually no lockdown was imposed, just restrictions.
It confirmed the limitation of scientists whose recommendations are sometimes taken as gospel to stop the world in its tracks on models easily prone to error and misjudgment.
The advise of scientists in pandemic times weigh heavily on decisions of governments, but cannot always be relied upon because of some of the failings and poor judgements that many times affect them all.
The 17 December report stressed that regardless of interventions from the government, “all scenarios estimate that peak cases will far exceed previous peaks, regardless of population protections implemented”.
“There are a maximum 11,000 to 24,000 estimated daily cases estimated (41,000 to 65,000 infections),” it added.
“This is highly likely to put pressure on the system in terms of high prevalence and sickness absence.”
Image:cardiff.ac.uk
P.S:The images featured in this article do not represent that of the scientists in this story.