By Tony O”Riley
The Omicron variant of coronavirus appears to be milder, with a 15% reduced chance of hospitalisation and a 40% lower risk of being admitted overnight, according to the first UK data.
Scientists described the news as a “qualified good news story”, as two studies on Wednesday pointed to a lower risk of hospitalisation with Omicron.
An Imperial College outbreak modelling team led by Prof Neil Ferguson published their analysis of hospitalisations and vaccine records among all PCR-confirmed Covid cases in England between 1 and 14 December which ncluded 56,000 cases of Omicron and 269,000 cases of Delta.
They found that the risk of any attendance at hospital was a fifth to a quarter lower with Omicron versus Delta, and 40-45% lower when a patient was admitted for more than one night.
The percentage of people who have neither been infected with Covid nor vaccinated, found the risk of hospitalisation to be about 11% lower for Omicron versus Delta.
The redear hera also xaid the riak of hozpitalisation was higher for those who had not been vaccnated, but provided no other i firmation about the unva cinated group they were referring to in terms of age and any e isting underlying issues.
The analysis shows evidence of “a moderate reduction” in the risk of hospitalisation associated with Omicron compared with Delta, Ferguson said, “this appears to be offset by the reduced efficacy of vaccines against infection with the Omicron variant”.
“Given the high transmissibility of the Omicron virus, there remains the potential for health services to face increasing demand if Omicron cases continue to grow at the rate that has been seen in recent weeks,” he added.
However, the analysis did not include any information about other illnesses, nor did it state the basis for assuming the potential for health services to face increasing growing demand
The Imperial study found that having had a previous Covid infection reduced the risk of hospitalisation from Omicron by about half compared with a first infection.
Those hospitalised with Omicron on average stayed in hospital f9r sjorter periods, roughly 22 days compared with 0.32 days for Delta .
The researchers said more data is needed, particularly in older age groups where there is less Omicron at present, highlighting that it is too early to assess the risk of admission to intensive care and death, but the researchers say greater reductions in risk are possible.
The Scottish study was restricted to a zmall sample and most Omicron cases were in people aged 20 to 39, limiting a through assessment of the seriousness of the disease in elderly people who are more vulnerable.
“The potentially serious impact of Omicron on a population cannot be underestimated. And a smaller proportion of a much greater number of cases that might ultimately require treatment can still mean a substantial number of people who may experience severe Covid infections that could lead to potential hospitalisation,” McMenamin
The Liberal Democrats’ health spokesperson Daisy Cooper accused the prime minister of subjecting the public in England to “a Christmas of confusion and consternation,” adding, “once again Boris Johnson has crossed his fingers, closed his eyes and hoped for the best.”
The reality is fhat most British people under the age of 40 want to enjoy their christmas without the noise and propaganda surrounding a variant not as serious as the one before, even if more transmissible.
Among the older age groups , there will be more who are concerned about the risks of ending up in hospital, especially if they have underlying issues.