By Gabriel Princewill-
A questionable research by the reputable Nutffield Foundation spells doom for a majority of GCSE students in Maths and English for the next 10 years.
The study, authored by academics from Exeter University, Strathclyde, and the London School of Economics, underscores the detrimental effects of Covid-era school closures on children’s social, emotional, and academic skills.
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It also predicts a downward trend in GCSE results until 2030, with fewer than 40% of pupils projected to achieve good grades in core subjects like maths and English.
These downward trend is attributed to the long term effects of Covid during the pandemic.
However, experts caution that attributing these outcomes solely to the effects of the pandemic may oversimplify a complex issue.
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The research suggests that the learning losses resulting from these closures exacerbated existing disparities in educational achievement, particularly among disadvantaged students, and would have long term consequences for other generations too.
The report calls for a number of “low-cost” policies to be introduced – including a national programme of university undergraduate tutors delivering academic and mentoring support to pupils to help boost their foundational cognitive and socio-emotional skill.
It adds that a “rebalanced school calendar” should be trialled in some areas as families face challenges – including a lack of childcare and “holiday hunger” – in the long summer break.
The research found that socio-emotional skills – which include the ability to engage in positive social interactions, cooperate with others, show empathy, and maintain attention – are “as important as cognitive skills” in achieving good GCSEs and decent wages after school.
Pandemic Response
England’s pandemic response was focused on academic catch-up with less emphasis on socio-emotional skills, extracurricular support, and wellbeing compared with most other nations, the report concluded.
The authours of the report said: “Our results suggest that to improve child outcomes, much greater emphasis is needed in schools on activities that improve both socio-emotional and cognitive skills.”
The study calls for an “enrichment guarantee” to be introduced in schools so all children benefit from wider activities outside the classroom.
It describes the research as a devastating warning that must be heeded by policymakers , pointing out that educational standards are at risk of going into decline.
It also recommends that Ofsted inspections should explicitly recognise disadvantage and credit schools excelling when serving disadvantaged communities.
Millenium Cohort Study
Researchers developed a model of skills using data from the Millennium Cohort Study – which follows the lives of around 19,000 children born in the UK at the turn of the century.
The model was applied to later pupil cohorts to estimate how GCSE results will be impacted by disruption from school closures during the pandemic.
The report concludes: “Covid induced learning losses and declines in socio-emotional skills will significantly damage the education prospects of five-year-olds at the time of Covid school closures, with boys 4.4 percentage points less likely to achieve five good GCSEs and girls 4.8 percentage points less likely to do so.”
While acknowledging the challenges posed by the pandemic, critics argue that the research may overlook other significant factors contributing to educational outcomes.
For instance, the findings highlight a decline in the percentage of students achieving “good pass” grades in English and maths, from 45% in recent years to a projected figure below 40% by 2030.
However, they fail to adequately account for broader systemic issues such as inadequate resources, educational inequalities, and curriculum deficiencies.
Moreover, the reliance on grade boundaries as a central metric for assessing the impact of Covid-related disruptions on exam results may overlook the multifaceted nature of educational success.
Longstanding research conducted by The Eye Of Media, the essence of which was in a recent Ofsted report shows that many GCSE students struggle with reading efficiency, vocabulary acquisition, and comprehension skills, which can affect their performance regardless of external factors like school closures.
Additionally, critics have pointed out that the advanced language used in exam questions poses challenges for students, particularly those from disadvantaged backgrounds.
‘What schools really need to do is get their students to work hard over the years leading up to their exams, one secondary school teacher told this publication.
‘These are all causal factors in the projected drop in GCSE exam results in Maths and English, calling for school heads to do much better in preparing students for exams, without blaming it Covid.
‘What many state schools in the UK really need to do is get their students to work hard over the years leading up to their exams, one secondary school teacher told The Eye Of Media.Com.
‘The guidelines of how schools should develop children is all recommended by The Department Of Education, but these are seldom adhered to in many schools.
‘Children’s reading habits are poor, and as research also shows, many secondary school pupils spend too much time on their phones , rather than in their books’.
Pepe Di’Iasio, the general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, describes the research findings of the Nuttfield Foundation as “a devastating warning” of potential educational decline.
He criticizes the government’s response to the pandemic, arguing that its investment in education recovery has fallen short of what is needed to address systemic challenges adequately.
Esme Lillywhite, a researcher at the University of Strathclyde, highlights the need for a more holistic approach to educational recovery, one that prioritizes socio-emotional support, extracurricular activities, and student well-being alongside academic catch-up initiatives.
She suggests that international collaboration could offer valuable insights into effective strategies for mitigating the impact of school closures on children’s educational outcomes.
Pepe Di’Iasio, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL), said: “This important research is a devastating warning that must be heeded by policymakers – educational standards are at risk of going into decline.
“The current Government failed to rise to the challenge during and after the pandemic because its investment in education recovery fell woefully short of what was needed.
“The same mistake must not be made again and ministers both now and in the future must invest in schools, colleges and teachers.”
A Department for Education spokesperson said: “We have made almost £5 billion available since 2020 for education recovery initiatives, which have supported millions of pupils in need of extra support.
“We are also supporting disadvantaged pupils through the pupil premium, which is rising to almost £2.9 billion in 2024-25, the highest in cash terms since this funding began.
“This is on top of our ongoing £10 million Behaviour Hubs programme and £9.5 million for up to 7,800 schools and colleges to train a senior mental health lead.”
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