By Charlotte Webster
Health experts have began to push a warning rhetoric about a devastating second wave of the coronavirus.The experts say Britain must start “intense preparations” for a second wave of coronavirus that has the potential to kill as many as 120,000 hospital patients in a worst case scenario.
They state a reasonable worst case scenario assumes that the R value (the average number of people an infected person passes the disease to), roughly doubles from around 0.9 in England today to 1.7 across the UK in September. The warnings are all speculative, but aimed at getting the British public to apply all precautionary measures now. Face masks will be made compulsory in all Uk shops as from July 24 in a bid to prevent people spreading the virus to unsuspecting shoppers who don’t have the virus.
Senior doctors and scientists convened by the Academy of Medical Sciences sounded a warning against a resurgence of cases this winter could overwhelm the NHS when services are already stretched due to the flu and other seasonal pressures. The Uk currently has 44,830 registered deaths of patients due to Covid-19, although The Eye Of Media has confirmed that several Covid-19 deaths put on the deaths certificates put on victims from care homes were not tested, but determined by doctors in many cases through investigation, taking into account the number of extra deaths in many care homes. The true number of Covid-19 deaths in the Uk would be a lot lower, although probably still high.
The experts sending this fresh warning were commissioned by Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, to model a “reasonable worst case scenario” for Covid-19 this winter. Their report, which has been shared with ministers and local health authorities, calls for immediate efforts to prepare for a second wave.Compiled by 37 experts, the report stresses the worst case scenario is not a prediction of what is likely to happen, but a description of how the outbreak may evolve if infections are allowed to surge and little is done to prepare the NHS and social care services.
“The modelling suggests that deaths could be higher with a new wave of Covid-19 this winter, but the risk of this happening could be reduced if we take action immediately,” said Stephen Holgate, chair of the expert group and professor of immunopharmacology at the University of Southampton.
“With relatively low numbers of Covid-19 cases at the moment, this is a critical window of opportunity to help us prepare for the worst that winter can throw at us.”
The modelling suggests hospital admissions and deaths would peak in January and February 2021 with a similar number of deaths as in the first wave.
It excludes deaths in care homes and the community, assumes no government intervention to prevent transmission, and does not factor in the use of dexamethasone, a drug recently shown to save lives in intensive care units.
Further modelling in the report shows less severe second waves might lead to 1,300 or 75,000 deaths between September 2020 and June 2021 if the R value rises to 1.1 or 1.5 respectively.
The report calls for a major public information campaign in the autumn to encourage people to prevent the virus from spreading. Hospitals and care homes will need better supplies of personal protective equipment (PPE), widespread testing capacity and Covid-19-free zones.