By Tony O’Riley-
The Scottish Health Minister, Robin Swann is calling for schools and pubs in Northern Ireland to shut down, after a number of coronavirus related deaths
His tough recommendation is contained in a paper claiming that the expansion of tighter measures currently in place in the Derry City and Strabane council area across NI will be “insufficient”.
The executive will meet later, amid pressure to impose new restrictions. Health officials have suggested measures should last between four to six weeks to have the greatest effect.
But there are tensions between the executive’s five-party power-sharing coalition about the duration and nature of any further restrictions.
The warning style recommendation comes after seven more coronavirus-related deaths have been recorded by the Department of Health in Northern Ireland since Monday.
Four deaths have been recorded in the past 24 hours, with three other occurring earlier but only now being reported in the department’s total, which stands at 598. The paper claims that a quarter of Northern Ireland’s 21,898 – deaths have been recorded in the past seven days.
The official document announced in the BBC states that, based on the latest scientific advice, “a package of significant interventions… will be required to prevent a further exponential rise in the virus”.
“Single wider interventions are unlikely to be sufficient,” it adds. There will only be a reduction in Covid-19 cases and people being admitted to hospital for treatment if the reproduction rate (R-number) is below one, the document adds.
The R-number represents the number of individuals who, on average, will be infected by a single infected person.
In Northern Ireland, it is currently estimated to be at about 1.5.
“The decrease in the epidemic will be greater the further R is below one and the longer that is maintained,” says the paper.
“The peak number of hospitalisations will be reduced, provided that an intervention to reduce R to under 1 is made early this week.”
Delaying the introduction of restrictions by another week could result in an extra 100 inpatients in NI’s hospitals, officials are understood to have warned.
The document suggests that going back to full lockdown, but keeping schools open, would reduce the R-number to a “little less than 1”.
Full School Lockdown
The document then says that a full lockdown with schools closed and the hospitality sector remaining open would result in an R-number possibly a little higher or lower than one, it adds.
“It is not considered likely that R can be less than one with both schools and hospitality open,” the document adds.
It says that household restrictions, have had some impact on reducing the rate of transmission. It goes further to warn about the “counter effects” of executive decisions to open higher and further education colleges and drink-only pubs.
It then warns that the health department wants any new measures in force by this Friday at the latest.