By Sammie Jones-
The number of Covid-19 deaths is expected to drop to zero by the end of June, according to experts from Oxford University.
Professor Carl Heneghan from the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University expects June to see far much fewer deaths from Covid-19 than previous months, with that number falling to zero by the end of the month.
The prediction contradicts others which points to a second wave of infections arising from the lockdown easing which has seen Brits out for up to 24 hours in the day. Under the easing of the lockdown rules, individuals can go for exercise at a park with one other member of another household without restrictions to their time out, but cannot visit the homes of other households.
Professor Hennegan believes Covid-19 deaths will be gone by July
He told The Sun: “I think by the end of June we’ll be looking at the data and finding it difficult to find people with this illness, if the current trends continue in the deaths.
“But we will continue to have these sporadic up and downs for about four to six weeks.”
He added: “People shouldn’t panic or get out of context if suddenly, say, we’ve had no deaths for four days, and now we’ve had eight or ten, because we’ll see that as you go down lower numbers, [there will be] a bit more variation in the actual data.”
Statistician Dr Jason Oke, also from Oxford University ad: “Looking at trends over time, still there is a steady decline in deaths and if you were tempted to project that trend into the future you would have to be cautious.
“They are [deaths] dropping at about 30 a day. And the last day the ONS reports it’s just below 400 deaths [in total]. So you can do the maths and wonder if that continues, for how much longer will we see Covid deaths.”
They are [deaths] dropping at about 30 a day. And the last day the ONS reports it’s just below 400 deaths [in total]. So you can do the maths and wonder if that continues, for how much longer will we see Covid deaths.
Dr Jason Oke, Oxford University
Although the pandemic has sparked a rise in deaths across most age groups – they have dropped in young men.
Experts claim this is because they are at extremely low risk from the bug.
And that many fatalities involve dangerous behaviour such as speeding, but the pandemic has curbed hazardous habits.
Risk expert Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, from the University of Cambridge, said: “This is a practically and statistically significant fall in the death rate among young men aged 20 to 24.
“We expect a hump [rise in deaths] due to essentially risk taking behaviour of young men. That has disappeared completely during lockdown.
“We would have expected 106 deaths over this period, and we have actually seen 69, a 35 per cent reduction.”