By Sheila Mckenzie-
Further lockdowns in sub-Saharan Africa could lead almost 32 million people, including four million children under five years old, to be severely food deprived. If extended to all countries in sub-Saharan Africa, lockdowns would push almost 78 million people (eight per cent of the population) into extreme hunger.
Researchers at the London School of Economics and Political Science have published the findings of a comprehensive research in which they conclude that prolonged, strict lockdowns would wipe out the savings of about 30 per cent of the continent’s population, effectively eliminating households’ capacity to withstand future shocks.
The study builds on recent data showing how incomes have been affected under lockdowns in developing countries and makes assumptions about the likely impact on various sectors in Africa. The authors of the research– Matthieu Teachout, IGC Research Director, and Céline Zipfel- estimate the impact of lockdowns on household consumption using survey data from Rwanda as a benchmark for their studies.loping countries, researchers simulate the effects of
containment measures implemented by 32 countries, focusing on school, public transport, and workplace closures. The impact of workplace closures creates the highest economic
costs.
The researchers say the simulations suggest an additional 9.1% of the population in sub-Saharan Africa have immediately fallen into extreme poverty as a result of COVID-19, with about 65% of this increase resulting from the lockdowns themselves. 31.8 million people (3.6% of population), including 3.9 million of children under 5, are very severely food deprived at the end of an
8-week lockdown.
Also speculated by the researchers is the conclusion that the lockdowns in sub-Saharan African countries are likely to make the savings of about 30% of the population essentially vanish, removing all resilience capacity to future shocks. ”If the income shock suffered by urban workers in the informal sector persists beyond the end of the lockdowns, 18 million people could continue to be at risk of severe food deprivation”’, they say.
Long Term Damage
The study estimates the current containment measures in Africa have pushed an additional nine per cent of the population into extreme poverty. It claims that the long-term damage to incomes from the lockdowns could keep about 18 million people at risk of severe food deprivation.
The authors admit the research is subject to a margin of error, but are clear that its findings allow policymakers in developing countries to better understand the direct and immediate impact of COVID-19 containment measures on people’s livelihoods. The IGC recently released policy guidance for developing country governments on containment strategies and support for vulnerable households.
In their calculations, the researchers also assume there is no government intervention in the form of social assistance. ”Currently, some African countries are distributing food and expanding social programmes, but World Bank data show coverage of existing, pre-pandemic programmes is extremely low and social assistance does not effectively target the poorest populations
The researchers say that ”the magnitude of the results from this simulation exercise suggest that blanket lockdowns imposed in low income countries to contain the spread of the virus, if unmet by a massive national and international economic response, may put even more people at risk of dying than the unmitigated spread of the virus itself.