By James Simons-
Researchers from the London School Of Economics say that the impact of Covid-19 related deaths are still under estimated because they fail to take account of indirect mortality effects of the pandemic and/or because of problems with the identification of the disease as the cause of death.
According to ONS data, 13% of all deaths of care home residents took place in hospitals (28% of residents whose deaths were linked to COVID died in hospitals).
The researchers points out that data on registered COVID-19 deaths among care home residents in England only accounts for an estimated 54% of all excess deaths in care homes (compared to same period in 2019).
They highlight the total excess mortality taking place in care homes since 28th December estimated to be 19,319 (48% of all excess mortality in England), and excess mortality among care home residents was 22,231, 55% of all excess mortality in England.
The report states that measuring the number of deaths confirmed or suspected to be linked to COVID-19 requires a test to ascertain whether the person had the virus at the time of death, or a statement from the person reporting the death linking it to the virus.
It confirms that the impact on mortality of COVID-19 occurred through both indirect as well as direct effects, and not all deaths directly linked to COVID-19 will be identified and recorded as such (for instance in death certificates). In relation to the latter point, it does not explain why.
Excess mortality represents the difference between the number of deaths in a given group that have happened during the pandemic compared to the average number of deaths in previous years during the same period. This has been used as a mechanism for concluding many of the deaths to have been Covid-19 related.
Indirect causes of deaths linked to the pandemic, according to the researchers, include cases in which people did not seek or receive medical care for other health conditions as a result of fear of contracting the disease. It also includes contracting the disease due to a concern not to over-burden the National Health Service, or lack of access to care that would be normally provided.
The conclusion that many people did not attend hospitals in order not to overburden the Nhs is being factored in overall assessments of the causes of several thousands of deaths in care homes.
The research also cites a recent letter to the Journal of America Medical Director suggesting that many deaths in a French care home affected by COVID-19 appeared to be linked to the consequences of residents being isolated in their rooms. It highlights the fact they were without adequate eating, drinking or medical support, and not to the virus itself.
Excess deaths have been estimated by comparing deaths during the same period in 2019. During that period, there were 22,231 “excess deaths” among care home residents, and 11,989 deaths linked to COVID-19. COVID-19 deaths accounted for 54% of all excess deaths in that period.
The implication of the analysis so far is that there are several more deaths not being connected to Covid-19 which were indirectly related to the virus. Its potential value is in being aware of the full scale of the damage caused by a virus, not just directly, but indirectly too.
It confirms that some of the deaths registered as being linked to Covid-19 or excluding Covid-19 were dependent on the testimony of a relative of the deceased.
The authors said they have not been able to contrast the approach they have used to estimate excess mortality in care homes with the methodology the ONS uses to estimate excess mortality in the population and like to encourage ONS to publish their own estimates of excess mortality among
care home residents in a way that is comparable to their estimates of total deaths
A spokesperson for the LSE told The Eye Of Media.Com:
”the research analysis is still ongoing and there will be more updates about it as time goes on”.