By Ben Kerrigan-
A government scientist’s prediction of a “summer surge” in Covid cases is unproductive, as it not based on facts, and suggests plans for a fourth lockdown.
Prof Adam Finn of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, today said that current modelling points to a rise in summer cases of infections because many adults are not immunised.
Finn said the UK was still “vulnerable” and the dates for easing restrictions may need adjusting.
Professor Finn’s comments suggests a recommendation for a U turn by the British government on the already scheduled dates for easing the lockdown in the UK.
Given the roadmap for the easing of lockdown which prime minister Boris Johnson has said must go ahead as planned, such predictions can only serve to fuel scepticism about the full credibility of the roadmap for easing the lockdown. Infections and deaths arising from the coronavirus have gone down, making the idea of predicting a spike in infections not conducive to the spirit of lockdown easing.
His comment echo similar remarks recently made by Boris Johnson that most scientists were “firmly of the view” that there would be a third wave of the virus at some point this year.
On Tuesday, for the first time since September UK government figures showed fewer than 2,000 Covid patients in hospital.
More than 10 million people in the UK have had two doses of the vaccine. It means more than 19% of UK adults are fully vaccinated.
“The models that we’ve seen on JCVI clearly point to a summer surge in cases as the lockdown is relaxed, because there are still many people in the adult population who’ve not been immunised,” he said.
Uncertainty
Prof Finn said there was “quite a wide range of uncertainty” over how big the wave would be “because it depends on how quickly the vaccine rollout continues” as well as how many people come forward for vaccination.
It also depends on how people behave as the lockdown is gradually relaxed, he said.
“If people move too far forward with that too fast, we’ll see things start to come up earlier,” Prof Finn said.
“The sense that the problem is all over, I’m afraid is a flawed one, we’re still in a vulnerable situation, and there are still significant numbers of people who potentially could be harmed by this infection if this happens.”
A rise in infections is sadly inevitable, but that does not mean it will be as devastating as it was in January.
Some models suggest there could be in excess of 100,000 deaths over the coming year or so. But others say it may be no worse than a bad flu season with around 30,000 deaths.
In England, the next relaxation of lockdown restrictions is due no earlier than 17 May, when it’s hoped people can meet in groups of up to 30 outdoors and six people or two households can meet indoors.
Further steps to relax rules in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are taking place this month.
When asked if dates for easing lockdown may need to be adjusted, Prof Finn said it was a “balancing act”.
“I think if we do start to see significant rises in cases in some parts of the country, they may need to adjust back those dates in order to avoid the situation coming into effect,” he said.