By Tony O’Riley-
Researchers at Edinburgh University have published a report claiming that making people stay at home does not prevent the spread of the virus.
Writing in the Lancet journal, authors of the study claim that the main issue is the challenge in getting the public to fully adhere to the rules imposed by the government. The most significant intervention is banning public events, which reduces the R rate by 24 per cent in just four weeks.
Professor Harish Nair who assessed pandemic measures in 131 countries before writing his report on what works – and what doesn’t.
He said: “If you tell people to stay at home, it is very difficult to ensure compliance.
“If you ask people not to meet in groups, you have the same problem – it’s about adherence.
“Banning mass events or closing schools, on the other hand, ensures compliance.”
Shutting schools in the UK reduced the R by 15 per cent. Their reopening was associated with a large increase in R.
However, Professor Nair said: “We found an increase in R after reopening schools but it is not clear whether the increase is attributable to specific age groups.”
Researchers insist that very few restrictions have a significant impact on their own – and that only using large-scale interventions has an effect.
‘If you tell people to stay at home it is very difficult to ensure compliance,’ said the professor. ‘And if you ask people not to meet in groups you have the same problem – it is about adherence. Banning mass events or closing schools, on the other hand, ensures compliance.’
Shutting schools reduced R by 15 per cent but the researchers found that, individually, very few measures have a significant impact. It is only in combination that they work to any great degree, which may explain why the limited local restrictions in England are achieving so little.
The Government’s Sage scientific advisory panel calculated that lockdown in March, including the ‘stay at home’ order, resulted in a 75 per cent reduction in R.
It comes as the UK today announced another 21,242 positive coronavirus tests and the deaths of another 189 people due to the virus.
The chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, said that numbers are ‘still heading in the wrong direction’ but also admitted Britain’s outbreak appears to be slowing
The Government’s Sage scientists calculated that the March lockdown, i
At 6pm today, all of Wales will go into a 17-day ‘firebreak’ lockdown to halt the spread of coronavirus. All non-essential shops, pubs, bars, restaurants and hotels will be forced to shut altogether during the restrictions.
And supermarkets will be able to sell just ‘essential’ items – prompting shoppers to rush out for goods after the Welsh government was unable to clarify what would be classed as a must-have