By Gavin Mackintosh-
The high transmissibility of the virus has led to calls for schools in England to stay shut in the New Yea, and all mass gatherings should be postponed until more is known about the Omicron variant, a Covid doctor has said.
Dr David Strain, the clinical lead for Covid services at the Royal Devon and Exeter NHS Foundation Trust, has raised concerns over the high transmissibility of the new variant and said stricter restrictions are needed immediately. Closing schools will put more pressure on pupils, and set them back academically again.
Thousands of pupils were set back last year, following coronavirus restrictions , leading to the closure of exams for G.C.S.E and A level exams
Government advisers called on ministers to take quick, decisive action to prevent the NHS becoming overwhelmed- a scenario today questioned by another prominent professor.
Ministers have so far refused to rule out the introduction of new restrictions, with deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab saying he is unable to “make hard, fast guarantees” that fresh Covid restrictions such as a circuit breaker lockdown will not be introduced before Christmas.
Professor Mark Woolhouse told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that it is “uncertain” when and how big the Omicron peak will be.
“We are at risk of the NHS being overwhelmed and essential services being overwhelmed – it’s now for ministers to decide,” he said.
Another expert, Professor Ravi Gupta, who contributes to the Spi-M modelling subgroup of Sage, said tougher restrictions are needed but fell short of advocating for a full lockdown.
He told Sky News: “I think we could go further, but I’m not necessarily saying that a full lockdown is the essential policy decision, but, of course, I’m not the policy-maker and all I do is do scientific research and advise accordingly.”
Describing the situation as a huge threat, Dr Strain said despite the vast majority of employees being double or triple vaccinated, health workers are still contracting the new variant in high numbers.
Dr Strain, who is also a senior clinical lecturer in the college of medicine and health at the University of Exeter, said that by Christmas Day England could expect a best case scenario of between 35,000-50,000 care workers being off sick with Covid. But the numbers could rise to as many as 100,000.
In order to help reduce the spread of Omicron, the expert called on the Government to adopt a number of new approaches, such as cancelling mass gatherings, introducing stricter rules in pubs and restaurants and shutting schools in the New Year.
“At a very minimum the mass gatherings need to be postponed, which includes football and rugby matches and concerts, until the New Year,” he said. “Until we have a greater understanding of this virus.”
He added: “What I would like to see is the reintroduction of physical distancing in hospitality, such as a return to table service and mask wearing.”
He noted that “children are transmission vectors” of Covid and by keeping that at home in the New Year infections are likely to fall, noting that the October half term had this affect earlier in the year.
“If schools go back in the second or third week of January we could have given enough of a break for numbers to go down,” he said.
Dr Strain, who has three children aged four, nine and 12, also noted that keeping pupils at home will help ensure the Government’s work from home mandate is adhered to, as parents will need to stay at home to look after the children.
Dr Duncan Robertson, a data analyst at Loughborough University, has also suggested schools could be closed in the New Year amid the threat posed by Omicron.
“Plan B was calibrated against Delta,” he told i. “We can see that it is completely inadequate against Omicron. If politicians are of the view that the restrictions in Plan B are enough to control Omicron, they are very mistaken.
He added: “As well as the number of people becoming infected and the number of people that have to isolate as a result, there are going to be huge pressures on critical infrastructure – not just in the NHS, but in police forces, fire services, and other critical services.
“The Government’s priority was to ensure that schools are open for face-to-face teaching for all. If Omicron is allowed to multiply the way it is, the likelihood of teaching being able to go ahead as planned is reduced.
“As ever, the Government can be proactive and try to control the virus, or can react and be controlled by the virus.”
Dr Robertson and Dr Strain are not alone in calling for the Government to act quickly and introduce tougher restrictions.
Patricia Marquis, England director at the Royal College of Nursing, has urged ministers to listen to “whatever the scientific advisers are saying in both the pattern of spread of Omicron, and the effect that it’s having on people, their health and the health services” to ease off the pressure on the NHS.
She said the science needs to guide what comes next to protect the NHS from what could be a “real collapse”.
Advisers recommended moving to restrictions seen towards the end of the spring 2021 lockdown, which included a ban on indoor mixing and indoor hospitality, with a warning against delaying further interventions until 2022.
They said modelling indicates that hospital admissions could peak at at least 3,000 a day without intervention measures beyond the Plan B rules currently in place.
But not all medics are in favour of tougher restrictions, with GP Professor Carl Heneghan suggesting the public do not need to be dictated to.
He told the Today programme the behaviour of people in England has “already changed” and said the public should be trusted rather than be forced to go into lockdown.
“It’s already changed in response to the messages,” he said. “If you’re in Greater London now, (population in) the workplace is down by 40 per cent, public transport down by 40 per cent.
“In the city of London, it’s up to 60 per cent. So people are able to respond to information or adapt their behaviour accordingly. The question here is when are we going to treat people like adults?
“People will moderate their behaviour accordingly. That’s what we need to trust people to do going forward because that’s the only sustainable policy.”
He told BBC Breakfast tougher rules are “probably” needed by added: “That needs to go along with adequate support for business and adequate support for individuals.”